# MSI Market Recap Methodology

*A Main Street Independent framework specification. This is the discipline behind the publication's daily market recap — published so the recaps can be inspected rather than taken on trust. CC0 — copy, adapt, and reuse it freely.*

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## The job, in one line

Report what the market did at the close, in numbers, and label each instrument's condition with a fixed rule — without ever claiming *why* it moved.

## What this recap refuses to do

Most market coverage spends its words on a story: *stocks fell **because** of the Fed; the dollar rose **on** trade news.* We don't, because that link is mostly guesswork dressed up as explanation. This recap holds to four rules:

- **No reasons.** We never attribute a move to a cause or a news event.
- **No forecasts.** Every label describes the data as it stands today. We never say what comes next.
- **No sentiment.** We don't tell you how investors "feel."
- **No money-flow claims.** Our data cannot measure fund flows honestly, so we don't pretend to.

What's left is the part that's actually true: the prices, the measured changes, and a consistent classification of each instrument's position relative to its own history.

## What we report every day

- **The Tape** — the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000.
- **Rates and the Curve** — the 2-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury yields, the day's change in basis points, and the 2s10s spread.
- **The Dollar** — its move against the euro and the yen.
- **Sectors** — the eleven equity sectors, ranked by the day's move.
- **Movers** and **Breadth** — across Main Street Independent's tracked universe of large-cap U.S. stocks.

## The rules, defined

### Trend (the moving-average matrix)

Each instrument is placed by where its last price sits relative to its own 50-day and 200-day moving averages — the average closing price over the last 50 and 200 trading days.

| | Above the 200-day | Below the 200-day |
|---|---|---|
| **Above the 50-day** | **Uptrend** | **Recovery** (unconfirmed) |
| **Below the 50-day** | **Pullback** | **Downtrend** |

- **Uptrend** — above both averages.
- **Pullback** — below the 50-day but still above the 200-day: a dip inside a longer uptrend.
- **Recovery** — back above the 50-day but still below the 200-day: an unconfirmed turn.
- **Downtrend** — below both.

**Structure** is a second, slower reading: when the 50-day average is itself above the 200-day, we call it *bullish structure* (a "golden cross" regime); below, *bearish structure* (a "death cross" regime). When the two averages actually cross within the last ten sessions, we flag it.

These are **definitions, not predictions** — a description of where price sits, nothing more.

### vs 50-day / vs 200-day

How far the last price sits above (+) or below (−) each average, in percent. A large gap means a stretched move — the kind that historically tends to snap back toward the average, though we make no claim about when.

### Year-to-date and 12-month

- **YTD** — change since the last close of the previous calendar year.
- **12-mo** — change since the same date one year ago.

### 52-week range

The lowest and highest close of the past year, and how far below the high the price now sits. A close within half a percent of the extreme is reported as a new 52-week high or low.

### The Treasury curve

We report each yield and its day-over-day change in **basis points** (one basis point = 0.01 percentage point). The **2s10s spread** is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year. We describe its shape mechanically — *inverted* (below zero), *flat* (under a quarter point), or *positively sloped* — and never attach a prediction to it.

### The dollar

Reported from the dollar's point of view against the euro and the yen, with the same above/below-average trend reading as equities. Currencies have no meaningful trading volume, so there is no money-flow reading here — only price and trend.

### Sectors

The eleven equity sectors, ranked by the day's percentage move. **Sectors get a move, not a trend label** — our data plan does not carry a single tradable sector series we can put a moving average on, so we report which led and which lagged, and how many finished higher, but we do not call a sector an "uptrend."

### Movers

Within the tracked large-cap universe: the biggest one-day gainers and decliners, and the names sitting furthest above and below their own 50-day average (the most stretched). We rank within a curated universe rather than the whole market so the list isn't dominated by thinly traded micro-caps.

### Breadth

Simple counts across the tracked universe: how many names rose versus fell, how many are above their 50-day and 200-day averages, and how many are at a new 52-week high or low. Breadth is the closest honest read of how broad a day's move was — but it covers the tracked universe, **not the entire market.**

## The data

Prices, the Treasury curve, sector moves, and history come from Financial Modeling Prep, taken after the U.S. close. The moving averages, year-to-date and 12-month figures, crosses, streaks, and breadth counts are computed by Main Street Independent from that data. The recap runs once per trading weekday; on market holidays it simply does not publish.

## Not investment advice

This is a data report and a fixed classification scheme. It is **not** investment advice, a recommendation, or a forecast, and nothing in it should be relied on for any financial decision.