The special election in Iowa’s 16th state Senate district on Tuesday is set up as a high-stakes test of statehouse power, with the winner entering a chamber where party control has been close to tipping point. The seat opened after three-term Democratic Sen. Claire Celsi died Oct. 6, and the election will determine whether Republicans can move from holding one seat shy of a supermajority to crossing the threshold needed for certain governance moves.
Democratic nominee Renee Hardman, a member of the West Des Moines City Council who serves as mayor pro tempore, will face Republican nominee Lucas Loftin, who works for an environmental and outdoor services company. The two candidates are seeking to replace Celsi, who had been reelected to a third term in 2024 with 69% of the vote.
The race matters for the balance of power in Iowa’s state Senate. Republicans hold a lopsided 33-16 advantage in the chamber and need 34 seats for a supermajority. The dynamic underscores how narrowly Iowa Democrats’ August special election had disrupted the GOP’s lock on the chamber, even as Republicans also already hold a supermajority in the Iowa state House.
The district at the center of the contest includes West Des Moines, Windsor Heights and Clive in the southwest corner of Polk County, as well as one precinct in eastern Dallas County. In the 2024 election for the seat, Celsi won with 69% of the vote, and in the presidential race that year the district leaned Democratic, with Kamala Harris receiving about 58% and Donald Trump about 41%—a split that also reflects how Celsi performed across precincts.
For voters preparing to vote Tuesday, the Associated Press said the special election is the only contest on the ballot. Any voter registered in state Senate District 16 may take part. As of Dec. 1, nearly 45,000 people were registered in the district, with about 37% registered as Democrats, about 30% as Republicans, and about 32% not registered with any party.
Turnout patterns from the prior District 16 race are likely to guide expectations for the count. In 2024, turnout was about 67% of registered voters in the general election, boosted by a presidential race at the top of the ballot. The AP reported that about 62% of District 16 voters cast ballots in person on Election Day, while about 38% voted absentee.
As for timing on results, the AP reported that in the 2024 general election it first posted results at 9:22 p.m. ET—22 minutes after polls closed. The election-night tabulation ended at 11 p.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted, according to the AP’s decision notes. Polls for Tuesday’s special election close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.
On counting and post-election procedures, Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request and pay for a recount. The Associated Press said candidates do not have to pay when the margin is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes, whichever is larger. The AP also said it may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
In addition, the AP’s election decision notes say it does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP said it will continue to cover newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, while making clear it has not yet declared a winner.