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Strong El Niño disrupts global commodity and shipping markets

Illustration accompanying article: Strong El Niño disrupts global commodity and shipping markets
  • Scientists declared the onset of El Niño in June 2026, with ocean temperatures at their highest, and forecasters say the event could rank among the strongest in living memory.
  • The Panama Canal Authority will reduce maximum vessel transits from 36 to 32 by mid-September as drought lowers reservoir levels, with auction prices for the largest locks surging to about $2.5 million from typical levels near $800,000.
  • Chilean copper producer Antofagasta cut its production forecast after a July storm dumped about 5 million cubic meters of snow on its Los Pelambres mine, causing a stoppage.
  • India's monsoon rainfall is running 13% behind average, echoing 2023 conditions that prompted India to suspend some rice exports.
  • A Bloomberg Economics study found consumer prices rise nearly 2 percentage points in Indonesia and the Philippines after an El Niño-influenced drought.
 2026-08-29 · 5 MIN READ

Tariff dispute could squeeze US farmers via Canadian potash supply

Tariff dispute could squeeze US farmers via Canadian potash supply
  • The US has imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian imports, and Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on the same value of US goods, effective September 8, 2026.
  • Jayash Paudel, an associate professor of economics at the University of Oklahoma, warned that Canada could retaliate further by restricting exports of potash, a fertilizer nutrient the US imports more than 80% from Canada.
  • Paudel wrote that potash was excluded from both countries' current tariff lists, but Canada could add export taxes on the nutrient and on oil, natural gas and electricity if the dispute escalates.
  • A Farm Bureau survey in April 2026 found that 70% of US farmers said they could not afford all the fertilizer they needed during spring planting.
  • American farmers typically buy fertilizer months ahead of planting, so trade policy uncertainty alone could reduce application rates before any new tariffs take effect.
 2026-08-27 · 4 MIN READ
Illustration accompanying article: Republican lawmakers publicly oppose Trump's beef import plan