Trump's August beef import order rattles cattle producers ahead of the midterms

David Oman says beef import policy could decide either Iowa race

The Trump administration’s August order suspending tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef has drawn opposition in farm country with the 2026 midterm elections weeks away, and Scott Birker told NPR the policy hurt his operation. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has defended the order as a bold attempt to bring down ground beef prices, while Iowa Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson has publicly broken with the administration. NPR separately reported limited relief for consumers, with the average ground beef price per pound in September only about 13 cents lower than in August.

The August executive order temporarily suspended tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef, specifically lean beef trimmings, and said the imported beef was to be sold at 25% below market prices. Its goal was to lower the price of ground beef, which was then costing around $6.80 a pound. NPR noted that importing more beef can reduce consumer prices, but the 300,000 metric tons that could be exempt from tariffs represented around 2% of total U.S. beef consumption. The average ground beef price per pound in September was only about 13 cents lower than in August.

The order was one of several Trump administration trade actions affecting cattle producers. Last year, amid the trade war between the two countries, China cut its purchases of U.S. beef. In February, Trump signed an executive order subjecting some Argentinian beef to fewer tariffs.

Scott Birker was driving around his farm in a four-wheeler when he warned that his cattle were in a bad mood. “They’re a little grumpy with me right now,” he said. Asked why, he said matter-of-factly: “We just got done weaning.”

Birker has raised beef cattle outside the eastern Iowa town of Garrison since 2001. His operation has about 150 “mama cows” and sells feeder calves, as well as some cattle for meat. He is also the northeast regional vice president for the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association.

Since August, when Trump announced that his administration would raise the quota on beef imported under lower tariffs and temporarily suspend tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons, Birker said the policy had hurt his operation. “That surprise, with a very volatile market already, with a tight supply, hurts us really, really fast and really, really hard,” Birker said.

Zach Raff, an incoming livestock economist at Iowa State University, said margins were always tight and raising cattle was not easy before the import policy. Drought in much of the western U.S. made hay much more expensive and shrank the nation’s beef herd. “The beef herd size is at an all time low – a 75-year-low,” said Raff. “So you couple that with very strong demand. And that’s going to make prices what you see at the store right now.”

Raff said the tariff suspension helped push U.S. cattle prices lower, but the uncertainty it introduced was the bigger challenge. “If I’m a producer, I think, well, look what’s happening – perhaps next year they’re going to import even more. The year after, there’s going to be a different policy,” Raff said. “And I’m going to say, ‘Well, these prices for my cattle right now are at record highs and projected to be high. So I’m just going to send my heifers to be processed.’ I’m not going to decide to replace the beef herd when I know that there’s a lot of uncertainty.”

Raff said the beef imports can have an added downside: they could discourage producers from keeping breeding stock that might expand the herd and, over time, lower beef prices.

Seth Watkins, who has his own cattle herd outside the town of Clarinda in southwestern Iowa, said the trade decisions upset him with Trump and all of Washington. “As much as what the president does frustrates me, I think I’m more frustrated with Congress, who should be exercising the checks and balances we learned about in high school civics,” he said.

Watkins is a Democrat and plans to vote for Democratic candidates this election, though he does not blame farmers who supported Trump. “They honestly were told that tariffs were going to make markets better,” he said. “They were told that we were going to enter this new golden era. I just filled up my pickup with $6.30 diesel fuel.”

With the 2026 midterms weeks away, the beef policy became a point of disagreement in Iowa’s open Senate race. Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for the seat, publicly broke with the Trump administration over its decision to lower tariffs on beef imports. “We need to focus on affordability, but I think this isn’t the way to do that,” she said on Fox News. “I think we need to focus on helping our cattlemen grow their herd.”

Her Democratic opponent, state legislator Josh Turek, has stressed that Hinson supported some Trump policies that have hurt farmers more broadly. “She’s been in favor of all this five times in favor of the tariffs,” Turek said in an interview with NPR. “Farmers rely on markets, on free trade, more than any other group.”

In the governor’s race, Democratic state auditor Rob Sand criticized Trump’s trade policies, while Republican businessman Zach Lahn has avoided that kind of criticism. Iowa Republican strategist David Oman said the beef policy could be a deciding factor in either contest. “Both of them will be two- or three-, four-point races in my view,” he said. “So any one element like this topic that cuts against you hurts.”

Speaking in Iowa just days after the beef executive order, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said the August measure lifting the beef tariff-rate quotas, or TRQs, might not be popular with producers. “I believe everyone will look back on this time and say, okay, didn’t love the three month lift of the TRQ, but we’re so grateful to a president that is willing to listen, willing to make big, bold decisions, and willing to put it all out there for our American producers,” she said at the Iowa Farm Progress Show.

The issue extends beyond Iowa. Texas, Nebraska, Montana and Kansas have some of the tightest races this year and are major beef-producing states, so voters in those states are weighing the same trade policies.

Back on his farm, Birker said, “I’ll vote Republican.” He called the choice purely personal, said the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association is nonpartisan and noted that he generally votes Republican. A personal conversation with Hinson reinforced his decision, he said. Birker also said he approves of Trump’s performance as president. “I do, I do,” he said. “I just think it’s a long putt. He’s a businessman, and I think we’ve got to stick it out with him.”

Trump was scheduled to travel to Sioux City this week as part of his pre-midterm push, giving him an opportunity to make his case to more Iowans.