Iowa farmers criticize Trump on tariffs, beef imports, and diesel costs

Iowa Farm Bureau skips governor endorsement for first time since 2010

Nancy Danner, who farms thousands of acres of corn and soybeans with her husband, Kevin, in western Iowa, told the Journal she is voting for all Democrats this midterm cycle, a change from her former independent registration. “We need to get some other voices in there to push back a little bit on this stuff,” Danner said. “We need as many changes as we can get.” Danner blames Republicans for not pushing back on the war in Iran and is frustrated with Trump’s tariffs. She said higher diesel fuel prices because of the war are hurting farmer profits, despite a recent uptick in grain prices.

The Journal described Republicans as facing the worst political environment in farm country in decades. Democrats have targeted agricultural states including Iowa — which Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024 — as competitive battlegrounds this cycle.

Several pressures are converging. Trump’s trade war with China halted soybean exports, the Journal reported, depressing prices for last year’s crop and costing farmers billions of dollars. Tariffs have also made farm equipment more expensive. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who is retiring after this term, said diesel prices — now above $6.50 a gallon — are weighing on farmers. “I would say it’s rough now. If we can stabilize those fuel prices, it does become better for our farmers. But it’s still rough,” Ernst told the Journal.

Farmers have been a loyal voting bloc for Trump and the Republican Party for years, the Journal reported. Many still support the president, especially on social issues such as ending diversity initiatives, and say their short-term pain is needed for long-term changes to unfair trade policies with China. They are also skeptical of Democrats as a viable alternative. But anxiety has been building over the past year, and Trump’s favorability ratings have now dropped near record lows, according to the Journal. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate, and their troubles in farm states are boosting Democrats’ prospects for flipping both chambers and taking back governor mansions, the Journal reported. Races in agricultural states such as Iowa are increasingly competitive for Democrats, who are bashing Trump’s farm policies while calling for breaking up large agriculture companies.

In Iowa’s governor race, recent polls show state Auditor Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman and farmer. The Iowa Farm Bureau Political Action Committee didn’t endorse either candidate — the first time the group has sat out endorsing the race for governor since 2010. The group has endorsed all Republicans in recent election cycles. Democrats believe they have a shot at flipping three of Iowa’s four House seats. Iowa’s open Senate seat features Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV news anchor, and Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist in basketball.

Dave Wasserman, a senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, compared the 2026 cycle to midterms in 1986, during an economic crisis that sent many farms and ranches into foreclosure, and to 2006, an election seen as a referendum on the unpopular Iraq war and high fuel prices. Democrats flipped the Senate from red to blue in 1986 and increased their House majority; in 2006, they seized control of both chambers of Congress, the Journal reported. “Everything’s got to go right for Democrats to win in these double-digit Trump states, but this is close to a perfect storm for Democrats,” Wasserman said.

In Colorado, Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) said: “If we’re going to try to win back voters in the rural parts of America, this is as good a chance as we’ll ever have.”

Michael Sersland, an Iowa farmer with about 1,100 acres, is still undecided on the midterm races and is waiting until Election Day to make up his mind. Farmers are Republicans, Sersland said, but they aren’t fans of the war and rising costs. “I’ll make a final decision that day,” he said.

Wayne Vorwald, a northeast Iowa rancher who spoke to the Journal at a farm trade show this month, said “politics has been frustrating” and that “there are plenty of angry cattlemen around here,” but added that he cannot bring himself to vote for a Democrat. While cattlemen are angry with the Trump administration, Democrats still have a long way to go to win the trust of rural ranchers, the Journal reported.

Outside of Iowa, ranchers in states including Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas are criticizing Trump’s recent plan to import 300,000 metric tons — roughly 660 million pounds — of beef from South America free of tariffs, according to the Journal. The move, aimed at lowering high consumer prices, drew anger from ranchers, the Journal reported. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the largest trade group for cattle ranchers, with more than 25,000 members, said government intervention will hurt ranchers and prevent long-term stability in the beef industry.

In Nebraska — where cattle outnumber people three to one — independent candidate Dan Osborn has run advertisements criticizing Republicans for supporting policies that would bring in more beef from South America. He is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Quentin Dailey, a Lexington, Neb., cattle rancher, told the Journal his main fear, if Democrats retake the Senate, is that Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey — who is vegan — would chair the Senate Agriculture Committee. “That does not bode well for our industry,” Dailey said.

Cattlemen groups from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas spoke out against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent activity in southwest Kansas this past week. The area is home to several massive beef processing plants and large feedlots — where cattle are fattened before slaughter. ICE’s presence delayed shifts and hampered beef production at some facilities after some employees didn’t show up for work. The groups said the operations are “having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers” and warned that the disruptions will lead to higher beef prices.

In Texas’s cattle-heavy 15th congressional district, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “tossup” this week, even though Trump won the district by 18 percentage points in 2024. Democrat Bobby Pulido is challenging incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas). Pulido told the Journal he has heard anecdotally that farmers and ranchers are staying home this election cycle. “I have friends that are cattle ranchers themselves, and actually they voted for Trump, and they’re really angry,” Pulido said.