Hispanic voter shifts give vulnerable Republicans political cover
Republican candidates and elected officials are publicly breaking with President Trump on the war with Iran, his immigration agenda, and a request to investigate his eldest son, with less than 40 days remaining until voting closes in the midterm elections.
The breakaway moves span competitive Senate races in Iowa and Michigan, House districts in Florida and elsewhere with shifting Hispanic electorates, and at least one senator who will not face voters until 2030. They come as Republicans fight to preserve narrow congressional majorities that could hinge on a small number of toss-up races.
On Monday, two Republican Senate candidates — Ashley Hinson of Iowa and Mike Rogers of Michigan — came out against the war with Iran and pressed for additional relief from rising prices. Neither mentioned Trump by name in their statements, but both departed from a White House that has defended the conflict and downplayed its economic effects.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” Hinson said in a statement on X, adding that the conflict “needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.” Hinson has previously voted against efforts to end the war.
In a video filmed at a supermarket, Rogers tied grocery costs directly to the conflict. “Michigan families are struggling with the price of everyday life,” Rogers said. “Groceries cost too much. We have to bring prices down. The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly. When it does, energy costs will plummet.”
The dissent is not confined to the campaign trail. On Tuesday, Utah Republican Sen. John Curtis — who is not up for reelection until 2030 — released a letter urging the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate Donald Trump Jr. after ProPublica reported that a Russian oligarch financed large portions of a lavish party celebrating his wedding.
Sarah Longwell, a GOP strategist and longtime critic of the president, said Curtis’s move was notable because, though past Trump critics have largely been voted out of Congress or left the party, the president still enjoys overwhelming support from Republican voters, according to Longwell.
“You are starting to see the very beginnings of people recognizing that Trump just doesn’t have the juice that he once did and starting to push back,” Longwell said.
The Iran war has also produced a growing fissure on Capitol Hill. Last week, seven House Republicans — up from four over the summer — joined Democrats in supporting a resolution to remove U.S. forces from Iran.
Ron Bonjean, a GOP strategist and founder of the public affairs firm ROKK Solutions, framed the breakaway moves as electoral necessity. “For a long time, Republicans have stuck with the president through thick and thin,” Bonjean said. “But the ones who are facing real trouble at the polls need to differentiate themselves.”
Bonjean added: “They’re doing everything they can to make sure voters understand that they’re much more independent than voting with Trump 100% or agreeing with him 100% of the time.”
The calculus is sharpened by shifts among Hispanic voters, who moved toward Republicans in 2024 and have since pulled back. A recent New York Times/Siena poll found drops in Republican support in House districts with large Hispanic populations, even in red states like Texas and Florida.
In Florida’s 27th district, Rep. María Elvira Salazar — running to represent parts of Miami for a third term — released an ad directly criticizing Trump’s immigration agenda. “Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” Salazar said in the ad. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
Salazar has nonetheless avoided a direct confrontation. In a CBS News interview days after the ad aired, she described a “fantastic conversation” with Trump and called him “very receptive.” “There are no attacks here,” she said. “I’m just forewarning him and advising him as a member of Congress from the South Florida area that some of his advisers are just not presenting the whole picture.”
The intraparty split coincides with a public mood in which voters consistently rank the cost of living as their top concern and increasingly view the war as an additional financial pressure. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 45 percent of registered voters — and a majority of independents — see their midterm vote as a vote against Trump, even as Trump has repeatedly urged supporters to vote as if he is on the ballot despite facing historically low approval ratings.
“Trump’s strength has always been primarily devised from his relationship to the voters,” Longwell said. “Republicans have always been loath to cross him because of his sort of stronghold on the party.” As Americans continue to sour on the president, she added, GOP lawmakers and candidates may “feel more comfortable bucking him on things that they really care about.”