GOP reservations outpace Democrats in eight of nine competitive Senate races
Outside groups aligned with President Trump have placed more than $150 million in initial ad reservations over the past two weeks, giving Republicans enough money to compete in races where the party’s candidates had been outspent for months, according to NPR’s analysis of AdImpact tracking data.
The reservations came from Trump’s MAGA Inc. and two new Trump-aligned groups, No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC. The broader Republican super PAC and dark money coalition also includes Texas PAC, which is aligned with Senate Republicans. The advertising buys cover TV ads, streaming ads and digital ads and include a chance to bloody up Democratic candidates in both Senate and House races.
“Look across the battleground Senate states, look at the House districts, the cavalry has come,” said Scott Jennings, a longtime Republican strategist. “Now, the Republicans have enough money to make an actual argument, to draw a real contrast, to have a real debate. And in some of these districts, in some of these states, it’s going to make a difference.”
The shift is most visible in Texas, where Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton spent months outspent on the air. After a bruising primary and the general-election launch by Democratic nominee James Talarico, who introduced himself to voters with millions in advertising, Paxton made no secret of needing help. At the Republican convention in Dallas last week, Paxton, the state’s attorney general, told delegates: “He is the most radical Democrat in Texas history, but he’s also the most well funded. Which is why today I need your prayers, your votes and your support.”
Pro-Paxton ad reservations for September now add up to more than $94 million, enough to swamp the roughly $20 million supporting Talarico over the same period. According to the tracking firm AdImpact, that September GOP total seeking to boost the scandal-plagued Paxton is more than Democrats have spent on Texas advertising in the entire cycle. As of the most recent campaign finance deadline at the end of June, Talarico had 12 times more cash on hand than Paxton, a lead built through viral television appearances and aggressive fundraising appeals — though super PACs and dark money groups that can raise unlimited funds have since Labor Day swooped in to boost Republicans all over the country.
Nationally, the picture is similar. Republican candidates and groups have pledged to spend more than $557 million in the nine most competitive Senate races this fall, compared with $343 million from Democrats. Republican reservations outpace Democrats in all but one of those contests, Georgia. The advantage extends further once House elections are factored in.
The spending is not only offensive but defensive. NPR’s analysis shows serious cash flowing into races Trump won by notable margins in 2024: Texas’ 15th Congressional District, which Trump carried by nearly 18 points; Kentucky’s 6th District, which he carried by 15 points; and Alabama’s 2nd, where his margin was 14 points. In the Senate, defensive spending extends to races in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio — places where Republican defeats could give Democrats a majority in the chamber.
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he thinks he has close to $1 billion in his super PAC and is allocating probably $400 million to $500 million to the midterms. “I think I have like close to $1 billion in the super PAC,” Trump said. “And I’m allocating probably $400 or $500 million [to the midterms]. So I’ll be spending.” Trump added that he and his allies were “going to spend a lot of money because we don’t want to lose our country.”
The financial firepower does not change the underlying political environment, which NPR described as brutal for Republicans. The president’s party almost always suffers losses in the midterms, and this president is historically unpopular, getting into trade wars with allies and overseeing an unpopular war with Iran that has caused gas prices to spike in a year when voters say the issue they care about most is the cost of living.
Democratic operative Jesse Ferguson said the GOP financial advantage was predictable. “Democrats are the party out of power and Donald Trump is more transactional than any president in history,” Ferguson said. “There’s no scenario where [Republicans] weren’t going to have a massive financial advantage.”
Ferguson drew a weather metaphor: “Money can’t change the weather, but it can be an umbrella for them going into this election. It can help insulate them, but it can’t change the fundamentals of what voters are feeling.” Those fundamentals, he added, are why Republicans are dipping into their vast war chests in hopes of holding on to GOP-held Senate seats and dumping tens of millions of dollars into House districts where Republican lawmakers redrew the maps to make them safer and, in a better year, would not be competitive.
Outside groups and campaigns operate on different economics. While outside Republican groups hold the overall cash advantage, the dynamic is reversed for the campaigns themselves, which can buy advertising at cheaper candidate rates than super PACs. According to AdImpact, virtually no ads have been booked by either party in Texas from October onward, while the Ohio Senate race has more than $116 million locked in for the rest of the election.
Jennings acknowledged the negative turn the ads are likely to take. “Some of these ads are going to be ugly and it’s going to be a pretty negative campaign, but that’s the nature of a midterm when you’ve got an environment like the one that the Republicans are facing,” he said. “And honestly I think the resources are going to allow them to win some of these races.”