Talarico Raises $68M to Paxton's $9M as Texas Senate Race Shifts to Tossup

Border wall, data centers, THC ban pose challenges for Texas Republicans

Talarico, a state representative and seminary student, opened August with a private fundraising swing that included stops in Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts and in New York City, according to invitations reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Tickets to those events ranged from $500 to $13,500. Former Texas Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes, a Democrat who co-hosted the Nantucket event, said guests left the sold-out gathering impressed by Talarico and his sincerity.

“I do think Talarico has a chance to win this race,” Barnes said.

The fundraising haul — drawn from both big- and small-dollar donors — has allowed Talarico to air advertisements across Texas, including one accusing Paxton of stealing a $1,000 Montblanc pen. His campaign has hired a top aide to Republican Sen. John Cornyn, the incumbent whom Paxton defeated in a tight primary. The shift by race raters at Fox News, Cook Political Report and the Center for Politics to “tossup” reflects Talarico’s extensive advertising and a slow start to Paxton’s general-election effort.

Republicans have sought to brand Talarico as a far-left progressive who does not reflect Texas values. They have attacked his prior remarks that “God is non-binary,” which President Donald Trump has cited by calling him “Tala Freako.” Paxton has referred to Talarico as “Low-T Talarico,” a reference to testosterone levels. Trump won Texas by more than 1.5 million votes in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Texas U.S. Senate race in more than three decades.

But Paxton carries political baggage into the general election. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 after being accused of abusing his position as attorney general to benefit political allies, and was acquitted after a dayslong trial before the Texas Senate. His record of suing Texas businesses while serving as attorney general has put him at odds with some wealthy potential donors in the state. Outside groups including a super PAC named “Preserve Texas” have reserved more than $4 million in pro-Paxton advertising, while Talarico’s campaign has booked upward of $30 million.

Texas Republicans are also navigating several state-level challenges. The Trump administration has drawn criticism for bulldozing sensitive habitats in Big Bend National Park to make way for border-wall infrastructure, and rural voters have pushed back against the construction of new data centers. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott halted approval of additional data centers amid his own unexpectedly close race. A new state ban on some THC products has also drawn backlash.

Paxton has issued limited public comments on these issues. After the Big Bend construction was paused, he said in an emailed statement that “destroying one of our state’s greatest natural treasures with unnecessary roads and barriers is not smart border security.” He recently released a data-center plan that includes provisions banning Chinese technology and holding centers criminally liable for artificial-intelligence chatbots that endanger children.

Trump traveled to Texas last week to campaign for Paxton, telling reporters that “we want to win that race.” Funds raised at a Houston event featuring Trump went to the Republican National Committee rather than directly to Paxton’s campaign.

In a recent campaign appearance, Talarico referenced the pen allegation directly. “Paxton will steal your tax dollars, he’ll steal your healthcare and, now we know, he’ll steal your pen,” he said, drawing laughter. In a statement, a Paxton spokesperson called the attacks “childish attacks that have already been thoroughly litigated. This was nothing more than a mix-up at security.” The campaign is selling “Not Ken Paxton’s Pen” pens, which it said quickly sold out. The man who originally accused Paxton of taking the pen has endorsed Talarico.

Talarico sat down Saturday for a live podcast taping with Texas businessman Mark Cuban to discuss healthcare. Cuban recently told journalist Kara Swisher he is a “big fan” of the candidate. Talarico has also taken legal action to try to compel the unsealing of two depositions Paxton gave in 2019 and 2022 in a lawsuit involving two former friends and business associates; The Wall Street Journal previously reported on the first deposition, which addressed Paxton’s conduct as a lawyer, his past business dealings and a blind trust that shielded his rapidly expanded assets.

Despite the fundraising advantage and the shift in race ratings, Talarico’s path to victory remains difficult. Some Democrats privately compare his candidacy to that of former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who drew national attention in his 2018 Senate bid but still lost on Election Day. Talarico has held rallies across the state, including an event in a rural town with Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who is running for a South Texas congressional seat. Paxton plans to hold rallies in the coming days in Corpus Christi and Willow Park.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political-science professor at the University of Houston, said the early dynamics give Talarico room to organize.

“The biggest issue for Democrats in Texas is they don’t have enough money to compete. In this case, it seems like they will because Talarico’s been aggressive in fundraising and Paxton has been lackluster,” Rottinghaus said.