AARP poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 48% to 44% among likely voters
A group aligned with the Republican Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend at least $50 million — and likely substantially more — to bolster Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate campaign against Democrat James Talarico, according to a person familiar with the plan. The intervention reflects mounting concern among party donors and leaders that Paxton, the Texas attorney general, is failing to consolidate what Republicans had expected to be a safely red seat.
The Texas Senate race is among the most competitive in the country, and defending the seat is central to Republican hopes of retaining their Senate majority. Polls in recent months have consistently shown the race tied or with Talarico, a progressive state representative and Bible scholar, leading. An AARP poll of likely Texas voters released last week found 48% supported Talarico, while 44% backed Paxton.
A senior White House official said this week that while they still believe Paxton can win, he needs to step up his campaigning and fundraising. The frustration has grown publicly visible at the Republican Midterm Convention this past week in Dallas, where President Trump repeatedly mocked Paxton’s appearance and speaking style before urging voters to turn out for him.
“Some may not like the way he dresses, I don’t,” the president said as Paxton looked on from the audience. “He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen.”
At the same convention, Trump acknowledged his staff had urged restraint. “I’m sorry, Ken. Where the hell is he?” Trump said. “I’m so sorry. He’ll never speak to me again, but that’s OK.” A week earlier, the president offered similar commentary, telling supporters “you might not like the way he looks…but he was the best attorney general in the country, perhaps.”
Inside the White House, frustration is mounting that Republicans must spend so much time and money shoring up what should be a reliably Republican seat, the senior official said. After winning the primary, Paxton spent time in Europe, where tabloids published photos of him with a woman in Iceland and England. Some Republicans have criticized him for not visibly campaigning enough, while his campaign has said he is doing so constantly.
Paxton and his allies have pushed back on accusations that he is not campaigning forcefully enough. After primary rival Sen. John Cornyn publicly called Paxton a “lazy campaigner” last month, Paxton said in a Fox News interview that he was working “18 hours a day, driving all over the state, raising money all over the place.”
“Every single day, Ken Paxton is traveling across the state and meeting directly with hardworking Texans, raising the resources we need to win in November, and continuing to build momentum,” campaign spokeswoman Madison Cercy said recently. Paxton’s campaign has largely dismissed the attacks on his appearance as “Trump being Trump,” according to someone with knowledge of the campaign’s thinking.
Paxton’s fundraising disadvantage has become pronounced. He has raised $9 million to Talarico’s $68 million, and Republicans had been waiting for Trump and other national groups to come to his aid. Last week, a super PAC aligned with Trump announced a $10 million ad buy to back Paxton. Overall this month, Republicans have spent roughly $22.2 million on advertising in the Texas Senate race compared with Democrats’ $9 million, according to data from AdImpact.
Many national party organizations had favored Cornyn in the primary and were dismayed to see Trump endorse Paxton. Paxton’s political history includes an impeachment by the Texas House and subsequent acquittal by the state Senate, a securities fraud indictment resolved with a pretrial deal, and allegations of adultery with a divorce pending. Trump was aware of those liabilities, according to an adviser, but endorsed Paxton in the May runoff after concluding that Talarico was weaker than media portrayals suggested and could be beaten.
Some high-dollar donors have since been reluctant to commit to Paxton, either because of ties to Cornyn, dislike of his frequent lawsuits against businesses, or discomfort with his personal issues. Talarico has capitalized on Democratic enthusiasm at the prospect of winning the party’s first statewide seat in Texas since 1994.
State officials in Texas are alarmed by polls showing closer-than-usual races across the state, concerned that Paxton could drag down the GOP ticket in a year when voter frustration already favors Democrats. Democrats have gained momentum in several competitive House races and are favored to take back the House majority, according to several election forecasts.
In recent days, Paxton’s campaign has sharpened its attacks on Talarico, selling the race as central to the nation’s future. On Tuesday, the campaign released on social media an AI-generated video of Talarico that highlighted past statements he made connecting his progressive positions with Christianity. “James Talarico is weaponizing faith to sell a radical agenda, and he even brags about hating Christianity,” Paxton wrote on X.
Appearing at the Dallas convention Wednesday, Paxton positioned Talarico as too progressive for Texas and more befitting of a liberal state like California. “If we lose Texas, we lose the common sense revolution,” Paxton said. “If we lose the common sense revolution, we lose America. California already has two senators, it doesn’t need a third.”
The competitive Senate landscape extends beyond Texas. Races in Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, and North Carolina are also expected to determine control of the chamber next year. But Texas has emerged as a focal point for Republican anxiety, with party strategists increasingly concerned that a sluggish performance by Paxton could limit GOP turnout and damage down-ballot candidates across the state.