Some GOP lawmakers publicly warn Trump-centered midterm strategy risks defeat

MAGA Inc. super PAC has yet to deploy much of its $400 million war chest

Trump pledged at a Wednesday dinner to campaign across the country for Republican candidates, telling the gathering “I will be with you 100% all the way until November.” The president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., has yet to deploy much of its $400 million war chest on the midterms — a delay that has fueled frustration among some GOP lawmakers and strategists who are impatient to see resources deployed in competitive races.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R., La.) defended the Trump-centered approach. “Nobody better to turn out the base than President Trump,” Scalise said. A GOP official, speaking about the party’s midterm strategy, said Trump is able to turn out voters as no one else can, and that having candidates embrace the president and his record is central to Republicans’ plan.

Other Republicans are sounding alarms, both publicly and privately, that Trump’s low approval ratings and focus on what some characterize as legacy projects and fights with allies could drag the party down in November. “Some of the things he’s done, it smells like chaos, it smells destructive,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R., Neb.), who is retiring from his seat.

Bacon pointed to Trump’s recent executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America” as a “silly” own goal by the president. “Most people think it’s dumb,” he said. Bacon said he has encouraged Republicans running in competitive races to break with Trump on issues such as tariffs, even if stepping out of line draws the president’s anger. “It’s hard to say, ‘I disagree and I’m going to vote that way,’” Bacon said. “And you’ve got to do it.”

Rep. Stephanie Bice (R., Okla.) drew attention last week after she was recorded speaking to student Republicans at Oklahoma State University, warning that GOP voters could stay home or even vote for Democrats. According to the Bulwark, which obtained the recording, Bice quoted a business executive who told her he was a longtime Republican but now has “Trump fatigue.” Bice later emphasized that she was relaying the executive’s comments and said the remarks were taken out of context.

Retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse (R., Wash.), who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, said the president “certainly has a strong following, but times are tough.” “We need people to turn out,” Newhouse said. “I can see Republicans not being as motivated as Democrats this year.”

Not every vulnerable Republican is seeking distance. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, running for re-election in a Wisconsin swing district, said he is sticking as close as possible to Trump, even if it costs him his seat. “I’m not backing away from the president. I’m simply not doing that,” he said.

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R., N.J.) said voters in his red-leaning district are worked up about gas prices, the cost of living and the Iran War, but he does not believe showing distance from Trump is the way to go. “I’m not that shallow. If you’re my friend and you get in a little bit of trouble, I’m not going to run away from you,” Van Drew said. He added that he would welcome Trump to join him on the campaign trail, though he will skip the Dallas convention to focus on local campaigning.

The super PAC MAGA Inc., which backs Trump-aligned candidates, has yet to deploy most of its $400 million. Spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer told The Wall Street Journal: “MAGA Inc. is committed to retaining and building the GOP majorities in the House and Senate. We are not in the business of sharing our battle plans with the press.”

House Republicans this week held a series of political messaging votes aimed at sharpening the contrast with Democrats — including a resolution condemning socialism and a constitutional amendment to cap the number of Supreme Court justices at nine, after some Democrats said they would like to expand the court. A few vulnerable Democrats crossed the aisle to vote with Republicans on those measures.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) pointed to Trump as the main reason he remains optimistic about the party’s midterm chances, citing legislative achievements including last year’s tax law and funding for securing the border. “We’ve got a strong hands-on president, and his record speaks for itself,” Johnson said.

Republicans are banking on convincing voters that whatever frustrations they may have with Trump, putting Democrats in power would be worse. That message is competing with internal warnings from members such as Newhouse, who said voter exhaustion with Trump is what he called a “legitimate concern” for Republicans.

Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to retake the House and four to retake the Senate, and nonpartisan election analysts have steadily shifted more races in Democrats’ direction over the summer. Political analyst Charlie Cook, founder of Cook Political Report, wrote that “the three most plausible outcomes are that it will be bad, really bad, or truly horrible.”