Polls show Democratic edge as Republicans face tough midterm fight

Three House Republicans buck party on Iran war resolution

Two weeks ago at the Republican party’s midterm convention in Dallas, Trump told voters they would receive $5,000 checks if Republicans keep control of Congress and warned the United States would turn into a “communist country” if Democrats are elected. Two weeks later, with election administrators in several states already sending out mail ballots, there is no indication the gambit has worked.

Last week, Democrats forced a vote on a war powers resolution to end the fighting with Iran. Three Republicans who had not backed the previous five efforts supported this one, ensuring its passage. Nancy Mace, the outgoing congresswoman who was among the trio of new converts, predicted her party would not keep control of the Senate or House of Representatives when ballots are tallied in a month and a half. “This midterm is going to be a fucking bloodbath,” Mace said.

In the days that followed, more Republicans in competitive races said the war should end. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for Michigan’s open Senate seat, said in a campaign ad released Monday: “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.” Ashley Hinson, the congresswoman running to represent Iowa in the Senate, wrote on social media that “the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.” Hinson had voted against the Democratic war powers resolution, as had John James, the congressman who is the Republican nominee for governor of Michigan. The Detroit News reported Tuesday that James told reporters: “We need to end this war quickly. Because war is terrible, and no one likes war.”

Democratic operatives have long maintained that Trump was leading the GOP’s congressional majorities into oblivion, and are now being joined in that prediction by veteran politics watchers, who see the toxic combination of rising prices, poor approval rating and dampening enthusiasm among voters as likely fatal for Republicans’ hopes of keeping control of the House, if not the Senate.

“We are seeing a dramatic souring and just overall level of anger at the broken promises of Trump and House Republicans, like, issue after issue after issue. Like, people are just unhappy right now,” said a Democratic strategist who did not want their name to be used.

Talk has even re-emerged of a “blue wave” in November that would see Republicans lose in deep-red corners of the country.

“Republicans should brace themselves: the three most plausible outcomes are that it will be bad, really bad, or truly horrible,” wrote the veteran analyst Charlie Cook.

Polls have continued to show Democrats with an edge on the generic ballot in congressional races and in some key Senate contests including North Carolina and Georgia, both states Trump won in 2024. Forecasters have moved their ratings of other battleground races almost uniformly in Democrats’ favor, despite Republican-led states’ concerted effort to redraw House districts in the party’s favor.

Trump’s approval ratings remain low, with some surveys finding him reaching new depths. Gasoline and diesel prices have started climbing again amid the war with Iran, prompting Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa to publicly encourage the president to do more for farmers, whose businesses have been hit hard by the conflict’s economic shocks.

Top Republicans have begun voicing public concern about incumbents in some of the reddest states in the country. Vice President JD Vance campaigned last week in Kansas, where Adam Hamilton is seen as a strong challenger to Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.

A New York Times and Siena University poll published last week found 57% of independent voters planning to vote Democratic and 34% for the Republican candidate.

Republicans counter that the picture is not uniformly grim. In the battle for the Senate, Republicans have grown increasingly optimistic about their candidate winning in New Hampshire, which some major forecasters now view as a toss-up. The party may also have come out ahead in the mid-decade redistricting push, and has more financial resources this year than the Democrats — a reversal from most prior midterms.

“House Republicans are running with a more favorable map, historic fundraising, stronger candidates, and a commonsense agenda, while Democrats are burdened by unelectable far-left nominees and deeply unpopular policies that make their path to the majority far more challenging than the pundits suggest,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

According to data compiled by political analyst Rob Pyers, Republicans and their allies have spent $384.5 million on Senate races, compared with $112.7 million by Democrats and their supporters. In the House, Republican supporters have spent nearly $65.7 million to the Democrats’ $51.1 million. Politico has reported that much of the House money has gone to districts where Trump won in 2024.

Trump’s Maga Inc Super Pac has started spending its $400 million war chest, buying $15 million in advertisements to support Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. Fairshake, a Super Pac connected to the cryptocurrency industry, will reportedly spend $30 million against Sherrod Brown, the Democratic former senator from Ohio and cryptocurrency adversary seeking to return to the chamber, after the industry spent $40 million to see him defeated in 2024.

House Republican leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson nonetheless insist that voters will expand rather than disband their majority in November. They note that 23 Democrats represent districts that voted for Trump in 2024, a number that has increased due to GOP-led states’ redistricting, while only eight Republicans represent districts that backed Kamala Harris. The party also believes that voters remain too disenchanted with Democrats overall to put them back in charge of the Capitol.

“Voters might not like Trump. They might not even like Republicans. But the polling shows that they hate Democrats even more,” a Republican strategist said on condition of anonymity.

Julie Merz, the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, acknowledged the party’s fundraising struggles but said the party remained on track for a return to power. “We are confident we’re poised to win the majority, and that’s why Republicans in deep red territory are running scared,” Merz said. “If Democrats want to break the Republican gerrymanders in the south and get the largest majority possible, more resources ensure we can flip those seats too. We need more cash.”

Many of the factors that will decide the election outcome may already be baked into the result, said John T Woolley, co-director of the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “Inflation, employment rates — they’re just not going to change a whole lot. So the kind of thing that’s left, the seats, those are fixed, [you] can’t change that stuff. So the only thing that’s left is the president’s approval,” Woolley said. “What that means is the president has to shift swing voters, independent voters, voters who don’t identify as either Republican or Democrats.”

Winning the Senate will require Democrats to oust at least four Republicans in states that Trump won in 2024. The House seems an easier target for the party, since the GOP controls it by a low single-digit majority. Democrats acknowledge that money is not everything. Vice President Kamala Harris and her supporters outspent Trump and his allies in 2024, a year of resounding Democratic losses.