Number of competitive House tossups falls to decade low amid gerrymandering
With the final state primaries concluded and less than 50 days until Election Day, Democrats are favored by election forecasters to win back the House of Representatives in November, while the fight for the Senate majority remains a closer proposition, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of aggregated race ratings.
Republicans enter the final stretch holding a 53–47 Senate majority and a 219–214 House majority. In the Senate, Democrats need a net four seats to claim the chamber; the Journal identifies Maine and North Carolina as top targets, with Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska also on the party’s radar. At the same time, Democrats must defend seats in New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia. Two independents caucus with the Democrats.
Forecasters rate the House as far more likely to flip to Democratic control than the Senate, the Journal reports, even as Republicans have redrawn several House districts in their favor. The Journal cites a historical pattern that cuts against the president’s party — the sitting party has lost seats in nearly every recent midterm — as a structural factor working in Democrats’ favor.
The competitive landscape sits at the end of a long arc tracked by the Journal’s forecasters. The volume of tossup contests grew during former President George W. Bush’s final year in office, a rise the Journal attributes to public support for Republicans waning following the unpopular war in Iraq and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, which eroded the GOP’s popularity. Tossup contests then reached a high point during President Barack Obama’s initial term in 2010, propelled by tea party momentum that energized conservative voters. By the conclusion of Obama’s presidency in 2016, that total dropped dramatically amid a political environment shifting toward Republicans. Today, the number of House contests rated as true tossups has shrunk to its lowest point in 10 years, according to the Journal, a function of rising political polarization and aggressive gerrymandering in state legislatures. Still, the Journal notes that a wave election for either party could push seat flips beyond the tossup column into the “lean” or “likely” categories.
The Trump factor has reshaped the campaign’s final weeks. The Journal reports that the president’s approval rating has fallen and stayed depressed, reaching all-time lows in recent weeks, with the war in Iran and resulting increases in gas and energy prices cited as a principal drag. Trump has insisted that Republican voters act as if he is on the ballot; the Journal reports that the strategy has become a problem for some GOP candidates in competitive districts.
In recent weeks, according to the Journal, some Republican lawmakers pushed back against Trump’s proposal for $5,000 checks, a Florida congresswoman criticized his deportation policy, and a handful of candidates in tight House races broke with the president to vote with Democrats on a war-powers resolution.
The 2018 midterm offers the most recent comparable data point. Trump’s approval rating that year averaged in the 40s, and Democrats netted 40 House seats to reclaim the chamber. Republicans, however, expanded their Senate majority by two seats. With Trump’s approval now at its lowest recorded level, the Journal reports, even candidates in seats once considered safely Republican are facing competitive general elections.
A separate structural factor complicates the House outlook for Democrats. Generic ballot polling aggregated by Real Clear Politics shows Democrats leading 50.5% to 41.9%. The Journal notes that Democrats have won a majority of the two-party House vote in both 2012 and 2024 without converting those vote margins into a chamber majority — a consequence of how congressional districts are drawn.
Race ratings are current as of September 18, according to the Journal.