Shift reverses 2024 GOP advantage as Trump approval drops to 38%
The 10-point Democratic edge in Gallup’s quarterly party identification survey is the party’s widest margin of advantage since 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president, according to The Guardian.
The 14-point net swing — from a 4-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter of 2024 to a 10-point Democratic edge in the latest quarter — reverses the late-2024 figure, which was taken shortly after Trump won the White House and Republicans swept both chambers of Congress in November of that year. The data offers the latest evidence that Trump’s second term has proved unpopular with voters and is driving a potential backlash, The Guardian reported.
Trump’s popularity dwindled immediately after his second inauguration in January 2025. According to The Guardian, his approval stood at 52% at the time of his second swearing-in. The latest figures show 58% of voters now disapprove of his performance, with only 38% approving.
During his second term, Trump has downsized the federal workforce, imposed tariffs, signed a major spending package into law, and launched a war with Iran. The Guardian tied those moves to the erosion in his popularity.
Democrats are seeking to capitalize on the shift in this November’s midterm elections. Liberals are likely to retake the US House of Representatives, according to The Guardian. The path to a Senate majority is narrower, although recent polling has given Democrats reasons for optimism about their chances.
The data also documents a long-running shift in how voters identify themselves. By 2025, 45% of voters surveyed identified as independents and 27% as either Democrat or Republican. In 2002, by comparison, roughly a third of voters surveyed by Gallup identified with one of those three labels, the data shows.