Cook Political Report shifts Texas, Iowa into tossup column
Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to retake the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and two independents caucus with the party. Aggregated race ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics show Democrats struggling in Maine and Michigan, their top targets, while making headway defending Georgia, capturing North Carolina, and competing in redder states including Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas.
Schumer, the Senate minority leader, said Democrats had a realistic path to the majority. “We have a very good chance to take the majority back,” he said, adding that Democrats had “expanded the map and have the strongest map we’ve had in years where many states that are purple or even red are now poised to go into the Democratic column.”
In Maine, Democrats are running Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and fifth-generation Mainer with union ties, against Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Jackson replaced Graham Platner on the ballot through an unusual July convention after allegations of sexual assault — which Platner denied — and sexually explicit text messages emerged.
Recent polling has shown Jackson with a slight lead. Republicans note that polling in previous Senate campaigns has underestimated Collins’s support. Collins, first elected in 1996, has emphasized her position as Appropriations chair and the ways it has helped local communities.
Schumer, whose initial support had gone to Platner, said the switch benefited Democrats. “The only way Collins could win was by making the opponent the issue as opposed to her. And with Platner, there were many ways she could do that,” Schumer said. Jackson, by contrast, “is so Maine, and so part of the fabric of the country, being a logger, coming from the North Country, being a union guy, she can’t do that.”
Republicans had planned to make Platner’s personal story a focus of the campaign. They now plan to mine Jackson’s voting record.
“Jackson is a candidate who has all of the baggage of Graham Platner and none of the charisma,” Alex Latcham, executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, the leading GOP super PAC supporting Senate Republicans, said.
In Michigan, Republicans view the seat as a prime pickup opportunity. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public-health official, won the primary over Rep. Haley Stevens, whom Schumer and Democratic groups had backed as more electable. El-Sayed faces former Rep. Mike Rogers, who served as House Intelligence chairman.
Republicans plan to spend heavily in the race and use the Sept. 11 anniversary to elevate antiterrorism policies, according to people familiar with the plans. They intend to point to El-Sayed’s association with Hasan Piker, an online commentator who said that America “deserved 9/11.” El-Sayed called Piker’s statement “a dumb statement.”
“Michigan is clearly the No. 1 pickup for Republicans, and that would really throw a wrench into Democrats’ math,” Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst for the Cook Political Report, said.
Schumer said El-Sayed “has brought in lots of new energy, new people into the party and a view that he can really get some good things done.”
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff entered the cycle as one of the most vulnerable incumbents but has dominated Republican Rep. Mike Collins in fundraising and opinion polls. In North Carolina, polls have shown former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper with an edge over Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman and Trump ally, in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
In Alaska, Democrats were encouraged by Senate nominee Mary Peltola’s performance in the recent open primary, finishing several points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. The two will meet again in the fall.
The Cook Political Report shifted the Senate campaigns in Texas and Iowa into the “tossup” column last week after listing them as “lean Republican.” Trump carried Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska in 2024 with at least 54.5% of the vote, making any Democratic gains there notable.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is stepping down. Former Sen. John E. Sununu is the leading contender in the Sept. 8 GOP primary to face Rep. Chris Pappas, the likely Democratic nominee.
Republicans face a difficult environment heading into the midterms. A Pew Research poll last month showed Trump’s approval rating at 34%. The nation has been grappling with six months of war with Iran, which has driven up prices for gasoline, fertilizer and diesel fuel used by truck drivers and farmers in many of the Senate battlegrounds.
“We’ve got political headwinds at us, there’s no question about it, some frankly economic headwinds too that we’re facing,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) told reporters in South Dakota. “So it’s not going to be an easy cycle. But we’ve got really high-quality candidates. They will be well-resourced.”
Surveys show Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about voting in the midterms than Republicans. GOP candidates will not have the benefit of Trump generating higher turnout among infrequent voters when he leads the ticket. Party insiders are watching how Trump might deploy roughly $400 million in his MAGA Inc. super PAC.
Republicans have blamed former President Joe Biden for entrenching high inflation while he was in office and have warned that Democrats are beholden to far-left policies. Democrats want to make the campaign a referendum on Trump, citing his inability to rein in the cost of living, the Iran war and allegations of corruption.
Prediction markets see the odds for Senate control as about even.