Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas Senate races tossups
Democrats are favored to win the U.S. House and have a chance at a narrow Senate majority, but a Republican fundraising advantage and internal party divisions risk slowing their momentum ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to nonpartisan analysts. New opportunities have opened on the electoral map as President Trump has grown increasingly unpopular over the war with Iran, tariffs and the high cost of living.
Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, said the conditions carry the elements of a wave election. “This is the kind of environment when a political scientist would say, ‘You have all the elements for a wave,’” she said. Still, Walter said, there are opportunities for Republicans “to not get completely wiped out.”
The most concrete obstacle is money. As of July, the Republican National Committee had more than $130 million on hand, compared with $16 million for the Democratic National Committee. Trump’s super PAC, for which Democrats have no comparable entity, held $403 million.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who leads the Republican Senate campaign arm, said Republicans are far from out of the race. “I think it’s hilarious that anybody would count us out at this point in the campaign,” Scott said. “We will have the resources to be successful. We have done a good job of candidate recruitment.”
Democrats are now competitive in states Trump won easily in previous cycles. Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are all rated as “tossup” Senate races by the Cook Political Report. Walter said it is a victory for Democrats to even be competitive in such Republican strongholds, but she said voters in those states and in other Republican House districts in play still view Democrats with skepticism. Individual Democratic candidates, particularly in Senate races, have outraised their Republican counterparts in most cases.
Republicans see a chance to win open Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, both held by Democrats who are not seeking re-election. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads most polls, but an August poll from the University of New Hampshire had former Republican Sen. John Sununu up by 2 percentage points, a statistical tie given the margin of error. A poll conducted by the Republicans’ campaign arm also had Sununu ahead within the margin of error. Race analysts still say Pappas is favored.
Polls suggest far more voters disapprove than approve of Trump, and Republicans have lost their edge in many polls as the party best equipped to manage the economy. In theory, those conditions make these midterms look worse for Trump than in 2018, when Democrats swept into the House majority. Yet Democrats hold a slightly narrower generic-ballot lead this cycle: just over 6 percentage points, compared with 8 percentage points in 2018.
The parties are nearly equally unpopular. Some 59% of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, compared with 58% with an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, according to a Pew Research Center survey released in May.
One place Democrats are particularly fractured is Michigan, over their Senate nominee. Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official whom The Wall Street Journal describes as a far-left progressive, has been highly critical of Israel and campaigned with the controversial online commentator Hasan Piker. El-Sayed was a main target of Republicans at their convention in Dallas last week. Democratic leadership had supported his primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, saying she would fare better in a competitive general election; El-Sayed won the primary by just 1 percentage point, a sign of how divided the party was.
Senate Democratic leadership and much of the party have come around to supporting El-Sayed. But a faction of the party has said he should lose to send a message to the party, even if it means giving up the chance for a Senate majority. Michigan currently has Democrats in all major statewide offices and would normally be seen as an easier place to pick up a seat than some of the ruby-red states where Democrats are competing.
Michael LaRosa, a former press secretary to then-first lady Jill Biden, said that if he were a Michigan voter, he would support former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers over El-Sayed because of El-Sayed’s history of controversial comments and his association with Piker. LaRosa cited comments El-Sayed made after a Michigan synagogue attack — condemning the attack but connecting it to Israel’s actions in the Middle East, saying, “Hurt people hurt people.”
“I believe there will be a long-term cost to the Democratic Party if it excuses extremism for short-term political gain,” LaRosa said. He said he is hopeful Democrats can win another way and has donated to party entities and candidates, but he is unwilling to put aside his issues with El-Sayed even if it means losing the chance at a majority. “I don’t believe Democrats should abandon their standards simply because doing so is politically convenient, regardless of what the math says about the balance of power,” he said.
Other Michigan Democrats have expressed similar sentiment, including hundreds of Jewish Democrats and independents who signed a letter supporting El-Sayed’s opponent. El-Sayed has been working to make inroads with the Jewish community, including apologizing for the synagogue comments. A spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
A separate pressure on Democrats is the rise of Democratic socialists, who over the past year have won high-profile primaries and in many cases appear on track to breeze through general elections to safe Democratic seats in November. Even if they all win, there would be fewer than 10 total in Congress. But their organization’s platform — including support for abolishing police and prisons, defunding the Defense Department and eliminating the U.S. Senate altogether — has given Republicans a line of attack against the whole Democratic Party.