Republicans hold 219 seats; ten states redrew maps since 2024
The balance of power in the U.S. House is on the line in the 2026 elections, and the latest aggregate forecast from three nonpartisan political analysts identifies 43 races as competitive, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Republicans currently hold a House majority with 219 seats, compared with 212 held by Democrats — a count that includes independent Rep. Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans. Either party can gain control of the chamber with 218 members, a majority of the 435 total representatives.
Race forecasts are aggregates based on ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The latest outlook shows 194 races forecast to be safely or likely Democratic and 198 safely or likely Republican, leaving 43 competitive races.
A handful of districts are rated as “safe” wins in November despite being represented by the opposite party. These and a handful of “likely” races that would flip are largely in states that have redrawn maps between censuses to shift party advantages. Since the 2024 election, 10 states have redrawn their maps to favor one party over the other.
The competitive race count has shifted modestly since last year, from 42 to 43 in the latest outlook. The Wall Street Journal described the report, by graphics reporter Danny Dougherty, as an explanatory article that may be periodically updated.