Cook shifts Kansas Senate race to ‘lean Republican’
At the Kansas State Fair’s Senate debate last weekend, hundreds of attendees booed, hissed and jeered when Marshall, an OB-GYN, stepped to the microphone, according to the Wall Street Journal, which reported from Hutchinson, Kansas. “Liar!” attendees shouted from the bleachers when Marshall suggested gasoline was cheaper under President Trump than under previous presidents, the Journal reported. Supporters of Hamilton, a Methodist pastor and first-time candidate, easily outnumbered and outshouted Marshall’s backers. The fair traditionally serves as an exaltation of farmers and the conservative base that has helped the GOP win every Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
The Cook Political Report shifted Marshall’s race from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” in August. Marshall won his first Senate term by 11 points in 2020; Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Recent polls show the race is competitive, with either candidate able to point to a survey showing him with a small lead.
“If Republicans don’t turn out, we’re in a world of hurt,” Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party, told the Journal. She urged national Republican groups to pour more resources and money into Kansas before it was too late. “Kansas gets overlooked a lot because we are reliably red,” Herbert said, “but this is a weird cycle.”
Republican worries about voter enthusiasm are spilling beyond swing states into red bastions including Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Nebraska, the Journal reported. Trump’s approval rating sits near record lows, and frustrations are growing over the state of the economy, tariffs and the war in Iran, the paper said. Democrats need to pick up just three seats to retake the House and four to win back the Senate.
West Virginia Republican Sen. Jim Justice said he is concerned his party’s disaffected voters will stay home. Republicans not worried about being re-elected this November are “living in a cave,” Justice told the Journal. “This is all about the economy,” he added. Nonpartisan analysts have said the political climate threatens additional Republican-held House and Senate seats, though they note GOP prospects have brightened in some races, such as New Hampshire’s contest for an open Senate seat. Republican groups have recently begun pressing their substantial financial edge with TV ads, many aimed at portraying Democrats as out of the mainstream.
Polling underscores the gap. A Fox News poll released on Sept. 16 found 12% of Republicans who said they were not part of Trump’s MAGA movement planned to back a Democrat for Congress this year. The same poll found 98% of self-described MAGA Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance, while 53% of non-MAGA Republicans approved and 46% disapproved. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released in recent days found Democrats hold only a slight lead over Republicans nationwide when voters are asked whether they plan to vote, but they hold a 59%-to-45% lead when voters are asked if they are enthusiastic about voting this year — a signal Democrats may be more likely to follow through.
Vice President JD Vance campaigned near Kansas City on Monday to shore up support for Marshall. “To Adam Hamilton and every far-left radical who wants to gain power by dividing Americans against each other, our message is simple. We are united in keeping you as far away from the halls of Congress as possible,” Vance told Marshall supporters in Olathe, Kansas. Marshall’s longtime senior adviser, Brent Robertson, dismissed the reception at the debate. “It’s early yet in this campaign, and Hamilton has already declined a second debate because it wouldn’t allow him to bus in another crowd to manufacture a media narrative,” Robertson said.
At the fair, Paul Rhodes, a 73-year-old antiabortion activist who previously supported Republicans, told the Journal he thought he probably will not vote at all this year. “There was always a baseline of support that was solid. It’s wavering,” he said. “I don’t think they’ll vote Democrat, but they might not vote.” Tim Keenan, a 69-year-old attorney and Republican who attended the fair in a Marshall T-shirt and plans to support the senator, said he expects Marshall to win but predicts “it might be the closest race ever.” Keenan pointed to farm-country frustrations over tariffs and fuel costs, adding: “Trump is not as popular as he was.” At a park by the Arkansas River in Wichita, Mark Lawson, a 69-year-old retired factory worker and infrequent voter who previously voted for Trump, told the Journal that food prices are too high and the president promised no more wars. Lawson said he likely will vote for Hamilton this time. “Marshall is in trouble,” Lawson said. “He favors Trump too much.”
When Marshall mentioned Trump’s health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the crowd roared in disapproval. Hamilton, interrupted only by cheers, attacked Trump — whom Marshall has strongly supported — on the costs of the conflict with Iran. “Suddenly this year, we needed to send an armada to Iran because we were in imminent danger of nuclear weapons being developed,” Hamilton said. “Now I’m not sure many of us in Kansas believe that, but certainly we do understand the cost of this war.” A visibly flummoxed Marshall was forced to stop talking several times as noise drowned him out. Hamilton waded into the crowd afterward. Marshall told reporters in Washington on Thursday that his Democratic opponents have “no chance,” saying: “They’ve got no chance.”
GOP concerns about enthusiasm also extend to Wichita, an aerospace hub that is home to Bombardier’s U.S. headquarters. Trump posted on Truth Social earlier this month: “NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES.” Marshall posted on X that he would “fight to keep Bombardier’s over 1,200 Kansas jobs.” Bombardier, without mentioning Trump, said in a statement that it “values its great partnership with American companies and its U.S. employees.”
David Kensinger, former chief of staff and campaign manager to Republican Sam Brownback, said that having to spend resources in Kansas is itself a tell. “If we’re having to spend resources in Kansas,” Kensinger said, “that tells you what the national environment is like.” The Kansas Livestock Association declined to endorse Marshall this year after endorsing him in the past. The group didn’t endorse Hamilton either, but Matt Teagarden, the association’s chief executive, said the mood could benefit outsiders like Hamilton. “Many are going to view him as more of a moderate and not a politician, and that might be advantageous in the environment we are in today,” Teagarden said.