Approval at 33%, the lowest of his career, per Reuters/Ipsos poll
The Republican Party will hold its first-ever midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday and Thursday, with President Donald Trump delivering the keynote address on the first day and closing remarks on the second. The two-day event marks the first time the GOP has staged a midterm convention; Democrats held similar gatherings in 1974, 1978, and 1982, the 1978 edition in Memphis drawing attention when Senator Ted Kennedy used the platform to oppose President Jimmy Carter’s renomination. Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Attorney General Todd Blanche, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Donald Trump Jr. are among the scheduled speakers, according to the convention program.
Party organizers have billed the convention as a “primetime showcase” intended to boost morale, nationalize congressional elections, and galvanize Republican voters ahead of November. But attendance is already uncertain: a Politico survey of more than 70 Republican candidates and members found 45 who either do not plan to attend or remain undecided, with some citing prior commitments and others balking at the $25,000 price of attendance. The made-for-TV event also competes directly with the two opening games of the National Football League season.
Elaine Kamarck, a Brookings Institution senior fellow who attended the 1978 Democratic midterm convention as a 28-year-old Democratic National Committee staffer, said the Republican event looks different from historical precedent. “This is essentially a Trump rally that they’re calling a midterm convention,” Kamarck said. “They’re trying to get enthusiasm among their base because that’s what they need for November. Basically, this is a Trump show.”
The convention opens against a backdrop of declining presidential standing. Trump’s approval rating is at 33%, the lowest point of his political career, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week. By comparison, 46% of Democrats describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting in November, compared with 31% of Republicans, according to the same survey.
Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill and co-founder of the Seneca Project political action committee, called the strategy “political suicide.” “It is an incredibly risky strategy for any Republican at this point to hitch his wagon to Donald Trump,” Setmayer said. “On every issue that Trump was once strong on he is underwater, from the economy to immigration.” She added that the convention “is not going to change that with 60 days to go to the election. If anything, it’s going to remind people of how dissatisfied they are under Donald Trump’s second term.”
In Texas, Senate candidate Ken Paxton, whose history includes an affair and a securities-fraud indictment, is among the Republicans hoping for a Trump-driven boost as he faces James Talarico. The Guardian described Talarico as “the Democratic rising star.”
Multiple congressional candidates have edited the Trump-focused language on their campaign websites in recent weeks. Carlos De La Cruz, a Texas congressional candidate, replaced “TRUMP CONSERVATIVE” with “PROVEN CONSERVATIVE” on his homepage, erasing a line about being “ready to be President Trump’s wingman in Congress.” In Kentucky, Ralph Alvarado pivoted to “INDEPENDENT LEADERSHIP.” In Nevada, Martin O’Donnell, a music composer best known for his work on the Halo video game series, no longer features his Trump endorsement photo on his website. In south Texas, Eric Flores replaced “SUPPORT PRESIDENT TRUMP’S AGENDA” with “LOWER THE COST OF LIVING.” In Alaska, Nick Begich edited his homepage to “We have delivered for Alaska.”
Some GOP incumbents have publicly broken with the president. Wisconsin congressman Tom Tiffany, who is running for governor, rebuked Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario as “Lake America” and opposed the administration’s plan to import cheaper ground beef. Michigan congressman Tom Barrett is campaigning on his votes to limit Trump’s war in Iran, highlighting his support for the War Powers Resolution.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, said: “He doesn’t care about any of these other candidates. He only cares about two things when it comes to the midterms: one, that he won’t be investigated and two, that he can get his appointments through the Senate. He demands loyalty for everyone else and gives loyalty to no one.”
A Republican source involved in convention planning said at least 100 members of Congress were expected to attend and more than 20,000 tickets had been distributed. The source denied that Trump would dominate proceedings, insisting the convention would aim to “energise our base, inform folks there is an election and highlight the contrast between what Republicans are offering – which is a secure border, safe communities, cutting taxes, giving Americans more freedom – and what the Democrats are offering, which is reopening the borders, repealing the tax cuts, investigating, obstructing, impeaching President Trump and not having an agenda beyond that.”
The two-night schedule focuses on domestic issues. The first night includes segments on tax cuts, healthcare affordability, the border, trade, and domestic manufacturing, with appearances by “workers and everyday Americans.” The second highlights families benefiting from policies like no taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security; overseas prisoners who have been released; border security; efforts to lower prescription drug costs; and a tribute to slain right-wing activist Charlie Kirk. The schedule also includes a segment appealing to the “MAHA” – or “Make America healthy again” – wing of the party on corporate influence in chronic disease treatment, and a 25th anniversary commemoration of the September 11 attacks with families of first responders. The program lists no foreign-policy or war-in-Iran segments.
Lichtman predicted the convention would struggle to shift public opinion. “People aren’t buying what they have to say, which is things are getting better, it’s the golden age, prices are coming down, we’re winning the Iranian war, our immigration policy is great,” he said. “They’re not gonna buy it just because it’s a convention. Plus, as we know, Trump always goes off script and that’s never helpful to his party.”
Conservative broadcaster Charlie Sykes, author of How the Right Lost Its Mind, framed the event as unlikely to expand the audience beyond committed supporters. “The midterms will either be a referendum on Donald Trump, in which case they will be disastrous for the Republicans, or Republicans will hope that they can make this a referendum on the radicalism of Democrats, so I’m guessing that will be a major theme,” Sykes said. “The big question is, who is going to be paying any attention to this? Who is going to be watching this other than the hardcore base, the already convinced? I have a very hard time imagining independent voters tuning in to see the Trumpist pageantry.”
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, offered a more measured assessment. “It might increase Maga’s turnout,” Sabato said. “That’s the only positive in this thing potentially for Republicans. It’s not going to change any minds but it might convince the Maga people, ‘Well, I don’t normally vote when our hero is not on the ballot but if this is what Donald wants me to do, I’m going to pitch in and help.’ But it’s not going to help that much.”
The convention also carries an undercard of 2028 presidential positioning. Vice President Vance, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and other potential contenders will be in attendance, according to the program. Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said the appearances would let prospective candidates test their appeal. “Anybody who looks in the mirror and sees a president looking back at him or her, if those people are speakers, it will be a chance for them to make an impression,” Olsen said.
Sykes said the undercard faces a difficult assignment. “It is a Trump-a-palooza and once again Donald Trump insists on being – what was the old phrase about Teddy Roosevelt? – the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral,” he said. “He wants to make the midterms all about himself despite the fact that he’s reaching the Nixon line in terms of polling unpopularity. It’s very much on brand except that right now, with every day we get closer to the midterms, Trump’s narcissism becomes a greater challenge to Republicans who want to survive what looks like a blue wave.”