Trump announces 90-day tariff cut on imported ground beef

Economists say plan adds only about 2 percent to U.S. beef supply

President Trump said Friday the United States would temporarily allow up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef to enter the country with no out-of-quota tariff, posting on social media that the product would be sold at 25 percent below current market prices. The announcement came weeks before midterm elections, when voters are expected to weigh in on the cost of food.

Agricultural economists said the proposal is unlikely to meaningfully lower prices at the meat counter, because the volume of ground beef affected represents only about a 2 percent increase in the domestic beef supply. The plan drew public opposition from the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and from Republican senators whose states are home to major cattle-producing operations.

In his social media post, Trump said the U.S. would “allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out of quota tariff” and that the imported beef would carry a “commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices.” The lower tariff rate would apply for 90 days.

Andrew Griffith, a University of Tennessee professor who studies livestock economics, said shoppers should not expect a price decline on the order of $1.25 per pound. “I don’t think it’s going to be $1.25 [less] under Trump’s plan,” Griffith said. “Now, we might see a quarter to 35 cents [less].”

Jaime Luke, an assistant professor and livestock economist at Michigan State University, said an additional 300,000 metric tons of ground beef would represent about a 2 percent increase in the domestic beef supply. “So when we look big picture, it maybe isn’t as big of a number as you might think when you first see it outright,” she said.

Luke added that it was unclear from Trump’s announcement whether the imported ground beef would be additional product destined for the American market or product already coming to the U.S. that would simply benefit from a lower tariff rate.

U.S. consumers paid an average of $6.89 per pound for ground beef last month, according to federal data. The average cost of a pound of ground beef has jumped nearly 57 percent over the last five years, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Three hundred thousand metric tons is roughly 661 million pounds. The U.S. brought in about 542 million pounds of ground beef in June alone, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, illustrating how quickly the quota could be filled within the 90-day window.

Griffith said any savings shoppers might see would likely be temporary. For a consumer who eats nearly 60 pounds of ground beef per year, he said, a 25-cent price decrease would amount to about $15 in annual savings.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association criticized the announcement in a written statement. “Undercutting American farmers and ranchers with inferior product from foreign competitors does nothing to create market confidence or encourage rebuilding the herd,” the trade group said.

The plan drew rare rebukes from Republican lawmakers, some of whom are up for reelection in November. “This hurts!” Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota said, calling for better protections for domestic producers. Sen. Tim Sheehy of Montana said Trump’s “heart is in the right place on wanting lower prices for the American people,” but said the plan would “make it more difficult for American ranchers to rebuild our herd and bring prices down.”

Voters are increasingly looking to elected officials to address rising food prices, which were up 3 percent in July compared with the previous year, according to federal data. A May survey by the University of Illinois and Purdue University found that nearly 41 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of Democrats said their November votes would be strongly influenced by what candidates say about food affordability.

“I don’t think it’s the only issue,” said Maria Kalaitzandonakes, a University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign economics professor who leads the survey. “But I think there’s a large share of voters that wants politicians to convey that they have a plan to make sure that cost of living and affordability remain a top issue.”

U.S. cattle producers have faced rising operating costs, a parasitic screwworm and foreign competition, contributing to the smallest domestic cattle herd in decades. Cattle producers similarly criticized a separate Trump proposal last year to import more beef from Argentina.