Voters in Iowa’s 16th State Senate District will go to the polls Tuesday to pick a new state senator in a special election that replaces the seat of the late Sen. Claire Celsi. The contest is between Democrat Renee Hardman of West Des Moines and Republican Lucas Loftin of Clive.
The winner could affect party control in the Iowa Senate because Republicans enter the election with a 33-16 advantage—one seat short of the 34 lawmakers need for a two-thirds supermajority under Iowa rules. Iowa’s two-thirds threshold can matter for actions such as overriding a governor’s veto, calling for special sessions, authorizing certain payments and confirming some gubernatorial appointees, according to the Iowa Secretary of the Senate.
District 16 spans West Des Moines, Windsor Heights and Clive in the southwest corner of Polk County, as well as one precinct in eastern Dallas County. Hardman and Loftin are running to succeed Celsi, who had been reelected in 2024 to a third term.
Hardman currently serves on the West Des Moines City Council and is mayor pro tempore, while Loftin works for an environmental and outdoor services company. Iowa Democrats won a special election earlier this year in a way that broke the GOP’s lock on the chamber, and Republicans retained their overall edge heading into this seat vote.
The special election is the only contest on the ballot. Any voter registered in State Senate District 16 may participate in Tuesday’s vote, and election officials will count ballots across the district’s precincts.
As of Dec. 1, District 16 had nearly 45,000 registered voters, with about 37% registered as Democrats, about 30% as Republicans and about 32% not registered with any party. Turnout is expected to reflect typical midterm patterns for the district, and the most recent District 16 election had turnout of about 67% of registered voters in 2024, boosted by the presidential race at the top of the ballot.
For that 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 9:22 p.m. ET—about 22 minutes after polls closed—and the election-night tabulation finished at 11 p.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted. In this special election, the AP says it will declare a winner only when it has determined no scenario would let trailing candidates close the gap, and if a race has not been called, it will continue covering newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory while explaining why no winner has been declared.
Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request a recount and pay for it. The AP says candidates do not have to pay for recounts when the margin is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes, whichever is larger, and it may still declare a winner in races eligible for a recount if the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.