U.S. natural gas futures pulled back Monday as weather forecasts showed reduced heat for the second half of June and liquefied natural gas exports remained constrained by maintenance work.
The Nymex July contract fell 8.1 cents, or 2.5%, settling at $3.147 per million British thermal units after opening the session lower. In earlier trading, the contract was down as much as 2.8% at $3.139/mmBtu.
The decline followed a stretch of gains driven by hot weather across parts of the South and Midwest, and by bullish positioning among speculators who had added to long positions in the week ended June 2, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data cited by analysts.
“While a short-term top may be in near $3.39/mmBtu, unexpected bullish catalysts could trigger a run higher and threaten a wider short-covering event,” Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics said in a note Monday.
The weather outlook shifted over the weekend toward cooler conditions for mid-to-late June, reducing the immediate demand outlook for natural gas-fired power generation. The July contract, Rubin wrote, “ran into a bearish weekend trifecta of milder weather forecasts, weak LNG and rising supply.”
LNG export facilities have been operating at reduced capacity in recent weeks due to planned seasonal maintenance, capping a key source of demand growth that has supported prices this year. The maintenance has limited the volume of gas flowing to export terminals, leaving more supply within the domestic market.
Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors said near-term hot weather was seen supportive for prices. “The first meaningful heat of the season is expected later this week, which should drive the strongest power generation demand of 2026 so far,” Huenefeld said in a note.
Pinebrook maintained its bullish outlook for natural gas over the next one to three months, Huenefeld said, “with the caveat that the market likely needs sustained heat or stronger LNG demand to extend the rally.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on June 4 that working gas in underground storage stood at 2.938 trillion cubic feet for the week ended May 29, the latest data available. Inventories have remained below the five-year average through much of the spring injection season, a factor that has underpinned prices even as production has risen.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,866.78 on Monday, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Economic Data database.