Elliott stakes Northern Star as Macquarie sees catalyst-rich period for gold miner

Analysts on Tuesday issued a flurry of calls on Australian and European mining and materials stocks, with activist-entry events, coal-supply disruptions, and shifting commodity-market fundamentals driving diverging outlooks.

Macquarie said that the addition of activist investor Elliott to Northern Star Resources’ share register could mark an inflection point for the gold miner, whose shares have been underperforming. Elliott, the bank said, will focus on generating value. “We see a catalyst-rich period ahead with pressure on Board and management to deliver,” Macquarie said. The bank identified Newmont, Agnico Eagle and Barrick as having the balance sheet and size to acquire Northern Star as a whole. Alternatively, the bank said, a carve-up could yield “quick wins” through the sale of noncore assets including Thunderbox, Carosue Dam, Jundee, and Kalgoorlie Operations. Macquarie maintained an outperform rating and a A$25.00 target. Northern Star shares were down 3.9% at A$19.10.

Gold’s structural backdrop continues to support mining equities. Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said gold is likely to benefit from continued central-bank buying, which he described as “the strongest structural force” in precious metals markets. Central-bank buying should continue for another three to five years, Menke said, citing emerging economies’ desire to become less dependent on the dollar as a reserve currency and a below-average share of gold in their reserves. While volatility may remain elevated as long as the Iran war lasts, Julius Baer said it sees a favorable fundamental backdrop and remains constructive on gold.

Macquarie also reiterated an outperform rating on Resolute Mining with a A$1.80 price target, despite recent logistical and supply chain disruptions that have hit the gold miner’s shares. Resolute is down 7.3% at roughly A$1.05, taking month-to-date losses to over 18%. The bank pared its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate for Resolute by 4% to 15.1 U.S. cents but made no changes to its 2027 and 2028 estimates. Resolute “is working to mitigate disruptions by the end of the [plant shutdown] period, which should see mining activities normalize and represent a near-term catalyst for the stock,” Macquarie said.

In thermal coal, delays in deliveries from Indonesia are heightening concerns about supply disruption, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist John Oh. Indonesia accounts for nearly half of internationally traded thermal-coal supply and recently announced plans to centralize exports. Newcastle coal futures have jumped above $150 a metric ton, up 16% on month and at their highest since the start of the Middle East conflict, Oh said. “The key watch point remains the ongoing Middle East conflict and impact to LNG markets,” Oh said. He added that a resumption of LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz could soften coal prices, but Europe’s gas-stocking demand will likely provide key support for both LNG and coal prices in the coming months.

MSI previously reported that analysts were diverging on steel, gold, and mining outlooks amid trade shifts and geopolitical tensions in Monday’s market roundup.

Jefferies cut Nickel Industries to hold from buy, lowering its price target by 17% to A$1.00 per share. Analyst Mitch Ryan cited “increasing geopolitical headwinds and higher sulfur prices reducing profit margins” of the company’s high-pressure acid leach operations. “While we believe the company is well-placed to capitalize on continued pricing strength, the increasing regulatory environment within Indonesia…are seeing us place a larger discount on future cashflows,” Ryan said. Nickel Industries shares fell 5.9% to A$0.955 on the downgrade.

Morgan Stanley observed that a proposed “state-linked export desk” for Australian iron ore and other commodities could give miners a way to tackle concentrated buying by governments in markets where Australia is a major supplier — including China’s central buying agency and Indonesia’s recent effort to centralize commodity exports — though the bank acknowledged such a move would also create trade and sovereign risk concerns. Globally, Australia accounts for about 59% of seaborne iron ore exports, 38% of metallurgical coal exports, 20% of thermal coal exports, and 24% of total lithium supply, according to Morgan Stanley.

Jefferies also commented on NRW Holdings’ failure to win a tender for work on Iluka Resources’ Eneabba rare-earths refinery, which went to rival contractor Civmec. Jefferies estimated the contract was worth A$150 million. Analyst John Campbell said the Eneabba work could have partly offset the revenue hit to NRW’s Minerals, Energy & Technologies business from an existing contract with Northern Star Resources for the Fimiston project in Western Australia. “We estimate Fimiston will deliver A$285 million revenue in FY26 and A$118 million in FY27,” Jefferies said. “We currently assume 8% FY27 revenue decline for METS which implicitly assumed some Eneabba work.” The bank retained a hold call on NRW.

In European steel, UBS analysts said Austrian specialty steelmaker Voestalpine is expected to benefit from increased steel prices, which they anticipate will rise further as import quotas are reduced in the EU. However, the analysts said much of this positive outlook now appears reflected in the share price. While higher steel prices, trade protections, and growth in the railway business should support earnings, the stock “looks fairly valued at current levels,” UBS said. The analysts cited risks that weaker European demand, potentially linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions, could limit further price increases. UBS cut its recommendation to neutral from buy but raised its price target to 50 euros from 43 euros. Voestalpine shares were trading 2.6% lower at 45.96 euros.