The Department of Agriculture on Thursday boosted its forecasts for corn and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina for the 2025–2026 marketing year, citing favorable harvesting conditions in the region, and grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower.
The updated figures came in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Brazil is now expected to produce 138 million metric tons of corn and 180 million tons of soybeans. Argentina is projected to harvest 61 million tons of corn and 50 million tons of soybeans, the agency said.
The Brazilian corn projection exceeded the average estimate from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal by more than 2 million tons. Argentinian soybean output beat the analyst consensus by 1.4 million tons. The estimate for Brazilian soybeans was unchanged from the previous month.
For the United States, the USDA left its corn production outlook unchanged at 15.99 billion bushels and its soybean figure at 4.44 billion bushels, both matching the May report. Wheat production was revised downward, to 1.54 billion bushels, a reduction of nearly 20 million bushels attributed to lower output of hard red winter wheat.
Commodity markets responded quickly to the report. Most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade slid 1%, soybeans also fell 1%, and wheat declined 0.2%. The larger South American supplies add to expectations of ample global grain inventories, a factor that tends to pressure prices and increase competition for U.S. exporters.