The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ annual State of Logistics Report, released Tuesday, showed that total U.S. logistics spending fell to $2.4 trillion in 2025, a 1% drop from the prior year, as logistics costs as a share of gross domestic product declined to 7.8% from 8.3%. A 36% decrease in ocean shipping costs drove much of the decline, with a wave of new container vessels ordered during the pandemic entering service and pushing rates down.
But the reprieve appears to be ending. Trucking rates, which had been in a slump for four years, are now rising. The Logistics Managers’ Index, a monthly survey of supply-chain managers, showed that inventory, transportation and warehousing costs all increased in May compared with April. Short-term contract rates for ocean containers from China, Japan and South Korea to the U.S. West Coast jumped nearly 48% between mid-May and June 12, according to data from the transportation-data firm Xeneta.
“Cost remains important but it’s no longer telling the full story,” said Korhan Acar, a partner at the consulting firm Kearney and one of the report’s authors. “Complexity remains elevated as leaders pursue profitable growth, resilience and AI adoption.”
On the panel Tuesday, Cantriel of Ford Motor painted a picture of a permanently altered landscape. “Normalcy is not coming back,” he said. He added that a successful supply chain in the future will be measured by its agility and speed of decision-making, rather than by the scale or buying power of the company. Cantriel noted he was not speaking on behalf of Ford.
Paul Bingham, director of transportation consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warned that the rapid build-out of warehouses automated with robotics and the construction of data centers to meet artificial intelligence demand will likely put additional strain on the U.S. electric grid. “It’s likely to translate into higher costs and less reliability in terms of the electric grid,” Bingham said.
The mindset of shippers has also changed, according to port and logistics officials. Beth Rooney, port director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, said companies are no longer taking a hands-off approach. “Five years ago, shippers were hands off. They signed a contract, they expected their cargo to get where they wanted it to be,” Rooney said. “Now shippers are much more involved and much more proactive in every step of the supply chain.”
Rooney said businesses are increasingly using a combination of annual contracts and spot rates for ocean shipping, and are routing cargo through multiple ports on the East, West and Gulf coasts so they can shift quickly in an emergency.
Stacy Schlachter, senior vice president of sales at Penske Logistics, said customers are asking the third-party logistics provider to help them plan for what-if scenarios. “Shippers have moved from being paralyzed by the disruptions to actually adapting to them and expecting them,” Schlachter said.
The past six years have brought rolling supply-chain disruptions: the pandemic-era port backlogs and product shortages, a subsequent glut of excess inventory, the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policies in 2025 that spurred companies to rush shipments or pause them, and this year’s war in Iran roiling energy markets. The cumulative effect, logistics experts said, is that companies no longer plan for a return to stability — they plan for permanent flexibility.