Japan’s imports rose 12.5% in May from a year earlier, government data showed Wednesday, accelerating from April’s 9.8% gain as the war in the Middle East drove energy costs higher and pushed Tokyo to secure alternative crude supplies.
The conflict has shut off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil from the Persian Gulf, reducing the volume of crude available to Japan and other Asian importers. While overall oil imports fell 28.5% in May, imports from the United States surged 663.4%, according to the data, a sign that government efforts to diversify supply are beginning to take effect.
Bank of Japan Deputy Gov. Shinichi Uchida said Tuesday that those efforts have helped temper the risk of a significant economic downturn. The central bank raised its policy rate to a 31-year high to fend off inflationary pressures. Uchida cautioned, however, that structural uncertainties remain over how quickly supply chains can fully recover, even after an interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran raised hopes for a resolution to the conflict.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said Japan can secure enough crude from national reserves and non-Middle Eastern channels to meet its needs through the end of March 2028.
Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said energy prices will likely stay high for now, driving a temporary surge in Japan’s imports during the latter half of 2026, given that the restoration of oil infrastructure might take time.
Despite the headwinds, Japan’s exports rose 17.0% on the year in May, accelerating from April’s 14.8% rise, the data showed.
Norihiro Yamaguchi of Oxford Economics said he expects export momentum to ease gradually. “Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on the global economy and dampen demand for Japanese products,” particularly capital goods not related to artificial intelligence, Yamaguchi said.