President Donald Trump said Tuesday he expects the tentative agreement with Iran to proceed on schedule, telling reporters at the G7 summit in Evian, France, that “Iran wants to get it done” and that the terms should come together “fairly on time.” The president is scheduled to hold a press conference Wednesday morning, where he may face questions on how the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will actually happen and whether Israel will take actions that could upset the deal.
Trump said Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs to “be more responsible with respect to Lebanon,” adding, “I’ve had a great relationship with Bibi, but now Bibi has to be more responsible.” The comments came as the president also turned his attention to the Ukraine-Russia war, telling reporters he spoke with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Sunday and plans to meet again with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “Russia should make a deal,” Trump said. “Russia has lost tremendous amounts of people, and so has Ukraine.” He added that he has “settled 8 wars” and that Ukraine-Russia was “the one I thought would be the easiest to settle.”
The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — which Iran closed by firing drones and missiles at ships and laying mines late February, according to U.S. officials — faces practical hurdles despite Trump’s declaration that merchant ships can sail unimpeded starting Friday. The U.S. military has already begun removing mines and opened a southern route off Oman, said Capt. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, who described the effort as “a U.S. effort.” A U.S. official said increased numbers of commercial ships are already using that southern route. “We’ve been getting as much as 25 ships through a day,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “I think they’ll probably go to maybe 40 to 50 pretty quickly. That’s just the southern line. By Friday, everything will be fully open.”
The UK and France will also contribute to demining. Starmer said the two countries would “offer support on mine clearance in an agreed way,” deploying autonomous mine-hunting sea drones, counter-drone systems, Typhoon jets, and the HMS Dragon as part of a defensive mission to secure freedom of navigation. British officials said those assets will assist in clearing the shipping lanes. American officials have not detailed what U.S. assets are being used, but analysts say the U.S. is employing a mix of drone boats, helicopters, and warships.
Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the RAND School of Public Policy who has advised the U.S. Navy on mine warfare, said the demining effort should achieve “an acceptable level of risk” given that the U.S. has “taken out a high number of Iran’s minelaying vessels.” The timeline of a full return to business-as-usual within 30 days, as the U.S. official suggested, “is realistic,” Savitz told NPR.
But the shipping industry remains skeptical. Tom Bartošák-Harlow, a spokesman for the International Chamber of Shipping, a trade association for shipowners and operators, said it is “very likely to be a gradual process of confidence amongst shipping companies.” He cited the need for confirmation that transit areas are mine-free and assurances that the U.S.-Iran agreement “is holding.” Bartošák-Harlow said there is still “a lot of risks associated with transit.”
A further complication is the question of fees. Trump insisted the Strait will be “permanently toll free,” and Vice President JD Vance said it will be “toll free for the long term.” The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps set up a so-called toll booth in March, though it is unclear whether any ship owners paid. Now, Esmaeil Baqaei, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said vessels will not pay tolls but instead pay “service fees” for navigation-related facilities, environmental protection, and maritime support services.
That distinction does not pass legal muster, said James R. Holmes, chair of maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. “There is no provision in international law for a coastal state charging for passage through a natural waterway, whether you call it a toll or a fee or whatever,” Holmes told The New York Times. Whether the Trump administration will agree that a toll and a fee are the same thing remains unclear.