About 4 million Americans will turn 18 in 2026, but if past patterns hold, fewer than one in three of them will be registered to vote in this year’s November midterm elections, according to an analysis published Sunday by the Civics Center, a nonpartisan nonprofit that works to increase youth voter registration.

The gap between youth and older voters is among the starkest in the U.S. electorate. U.S. Census data cited by the group shows that in a typical midterm year fewer than 30% of 18-year-olds are registered, compared with nearly 75% of voters aged 45 and older. Because young people are missing from state voter files, candidates, campaigns and pollsters often ignore them, leaving their policy needs and priorities unaddressed, the analysis found.

Conventional wisdom attributes low youth turnout to apathy — less than half of all 18- to 24-year-olds voted in the last three presidential elections, versus more than two-thirds of voters over 45. But Laura W Brill, founder and CEO of the Civics Center and the author of the analysis, argued that the data tells a different story. When 18-year-olds are registered, they vote at rates nearly matching older voters: in Pennsylvania, more than 80% of registered 18-year-olds cast ballots in the 2020 and 2024 general elections.

“The low turnout is not because of apathy — it’s lack of access and support,” Brill wrote. “Our systems fail to welcome all young voters into our democracy as soon as they are eligible.”

The primary driver of the registration gap, the analysis found, is the system’s reliance on state departments of motor vehicles (DMVs) as the main voter registration agencies. The 1993 National Voter Registration Act, known as the “Motor Voter” law, made DMVs the default location for registering to vote. Twenty-four states and Washington, D.C., have adopted full or partial automatic registration for drivers. But the analysis noted that even “automatic” systems can be designed so poorly that many eligible teens opt out — in California, up to 45% choose not to be pre-registered, according to state data.

At the same time, teen driving rates have declined sharply in recent decades. Only 44% of 17-year-olds and 60% of 18-year-olds hold driver’s licenses, according to the analysis, leaving an estimated 4.25 million young Americans outside the DMV registration pipeline.

Alternative registration methods also present barriers. Twenty-nine states require a driver’s license or state ID to complete an online voter registration form, the analysis found. For teens who do not drive, paper-based registration is often the only option, and it can be difficult to navigate without help.

Brill proposed a structural fix: making voter registration a routine part of high school before graduation. “Virtually everyone is enrolled in high school,” she wrote. “It means we can reach them in a space trusted by their community, and teach them not only how to vote, but why that matters.” Most states already have laws requiring high schools to help students register, but the analysis said those laws are “too often ignored.” Only three states — Tennessee, Louisiana and Maine — have designated high schools as voter registration agencies.

State-level performance varies dramatically, the analysis found. The worst-performing states for registering teens — those with rates below 25% — include Pennsylvania, Ohio, Connecticut and Alabama. But some states have demonstrated that the problem is fixable: Oregon registered 86% of its eligible teens, and Michigan registered 77%, according to the Civics Center’s data.

“Kids there are not more engaged or motivated,” Brill wrote. “Their states have made it easier for them to access their political power.”

The Civics Center and partner organizations including the League of Women Voters work with high schools to help students register. Brill called on state leaders to enact and promote pre-registration laws — allowing teens to register at 16 or 17 so they are on the rolls when they turn 18 — and to build “a manageable onramp to democracy.”

“Registering to vote should become a rite of passage for young Americans, a mark of adulthood — regardless of your race, your zip code or whether you went to college,” Brill wrote. She added that until state-level leaders act, “it’s on us — students, teachers, parents and local communities — to get our kids ready for November and beyond.”

The analysis comes as a series of state and federal efforts to tighten voter eligibility rules have stirred debate over access to the ballot. In recent months, federal courts have blocked or restricted several Trump administration efforts to obtain voter rolls and enforce citizenship documentation requirements, with some judges citing potential harm to young and minority voters.