WSJ investigation finds Polymarket ran secret social media campaign with fake winning bets

The Wall Street Journal published an investigation June 22 revealing that Polymarket, the prediction market platform that has been barred from letting U.S. users trade on its website since 2022, ran a secret social media campaign that paid creators to film fake winning bets and hired thousands of low-wage workers in Asia to make the videos go viral in the U.S.

The Journal’s investigation reviewed more than 1,100 videos made by 10 of Polymarket’s more than 100 creators. In 70% of the videos, creators appeared to place bets on websites that looked nearly identical to Polymarket but were actually dummy sites the company used to film fake trades, the Journal reported. According to the investigation, many of the creators did not disclose they were paid by Polymarket until the Journal reached out.

A subset of approximately 10% of the videos went further, incorporating outdated footage or fabricated headlines to suggest the creators had won their bets. Those videos depicted the creators winning nearly $900,000. The Journal traced how each bet would have actually been resolved and reported that in reality the creators — and anyone who had placed identical bets — would have lost more than $166,000.

Polymarket gave its creators bulletpointed scripts and reviewed videos before publishing, according to people who have worked with the company. If a video was obviously faked, the creator would be asked to remake it, these people said.

To amplify the content, Polymarket hired thousands of low-wage social media users, often teens based in Asia, to repost the videos from sockpuppet accounts that hid their affiliation with the company. The strategy, called “clipping,” is designed to create the appearance of authentic grassroots interest in a product or brand, the Journal reported. In a group chat, a marketing contractor for Polymarket wrote that if users reposting clips had a social media account with “Polymarket” or “poly” in the title, they would not be paid. Many of the clippers’ videos promoted Polymarket’s website, which the company is barred from offering to U.S. traders, but clippers were only paid if at least 60% of their viewers were U.S.-based, according to instructional documents reviewed by the Journal.

U.S. advertising law requires brands to be truthful about what they are promoting, and commodities law, which governs prediction markets, also bars deceptive and misleading practices. In response to the Journal’s reporting, a spokeswoman for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said prediction markets should be brought onshore, where they can be more effectively policed. A spokesman for the Federal Trade Commission declined to comment.

Polymarket said in a statement that it was “committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets” and that it would conduct an audit of active promotional content.

The Journal’s investigation also documented a contradiction between Polytarket’s public stance on insider trading and its paid promotional content. Chief Executive Shayne Coplan said the company is cracking down on insider trading and recently launched a webpage devoted to integrity that reads: “Insider trading is strictly prohibited.” Coplan has described concerns about insider trading on Polymarket as “outlandish and baseless.” Yet the company simultaneously paid social media creators to disseminate short clips of online celebrities talking about how easy it would be to use inside information to trade on the platform.

MSI previously reported that Polymarket had recruited creators to film fake winning bets.

One of those celebrities was Adin Ross, a 25-year-old manosphere personality. Polymarket paid Ross millions of dollars for a marketing deal, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The company’s clipping campaign paid to promote a video of Ross saying he could easily use insider information to trade on the release date of an album by Drake, a hip-hop star and Ross’s acquaintance. Representatives for Ross and Drake declined to comment. The Journal found at least 18 other videos Polymarket paid to promote that discussed opportunities for insider trading.