Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour about a possible takeover last year as Kalshi’s popularity surged, according to one of the people who had direct knowledge of the meeting. The negotiations never advanced.
There are competing narratives about why the talks broke down, according to the people familiar with the discussions. Some said Mansour would not move forward with a sale, while others indicated Meta considered the legal and ethical questions surrounding Kalshi too messy. Neither Kalshi nor Meta provided comment when asked about the acquisition talks.
Meta has instead stood up a team to release its own prediction market app, called Arena, which internal documents reviewed by NPR show will allow people to place bets using “play money” rather than real cash. The documents say Meta’s artificial intelligence systems will generate the questions and determine winners and losers based on whether an event occurs. The app will cover topics in the news and trending online. MSI previously reported that internal documents showed Meta planned to use AI to generate betting questions and resolve wagers on Arena. Meta plans AI-powered prediction market app, internal documents show
Prediction markets have grown rapidly. In June 2025, about $28 billion was traded every month on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to The Block, a news and research company. A year later, monthly volume on the sites is nearly $220 billion, driven mostly by sports-related betting.
Kalshi, which is overseen by U.S. commodities regulators, was valued at $22 billion in its latest funding round in May, up from a $2 billion valuation the prior year. Polymarket, which operates an overseas exchange outside the reach of U.S. regulators, is valued at $10.7 billion, according to private market data firm PitchBook.
Tim Wu, a Columbia University law professor who advised the Biden White House on tech policy, said Meta’s interest in prediction markets follows a pattern. “Meta seems to clutch at every shiny object,” Wu said. “With the help of their advertising cash cow, they’ve been able to fail again and again without consequence.” He pointed to Meta’s pullback from the metaverse and its abandoned cryptocurrency project, Libra. “I can’t imagine a casino app with fake money is going to be much of a thrill,” he said. “But maybe it’s something my children would like, I don’t know.”
The rise of prediction markets has sparked dozens of legal battles between the tech companies and state gaming officials, who argue the sites are gambling by another name. Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets. President Donald Trump has vowed to protect the companies, even as controversies over insider trading and market manipulation have multiplied.
The Justice Department has opened two criminal cases over alleged insider trading on Polymarket. One involves a U.S. special forces soldier who allegedly profited from classified information about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The other accuses a Google employee of using confidential data about search trends to correctly guess the most-Googled people of 2025, earning more than $1 million.
Meta has previously acquired emerging social media platforms, including Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014. More recently, the company bought the AI wearable company Limitless and Moltbook, a social network for AI bots.
The Federal Trade Commission alleged at a trial last year that Meta engages in a “buy or bury” strategy, in which nascent rivals are either acquired or Meta launches a competing service to squash them. A judge sided with Meta in that case, ruling that the company did not violate antitrust law when it bought Instagram and WhatsApp. The FTC is appealing the decision.
Wu described Meta as a company that became worth more than $1 trillion by acquiring apps rather than building its own. “WhatsApp and Instagram have given them never-ending profits, but normal companies cannot fail five times in a row,” he said. “Meta looking to take over Kalshi fits in with the company’s long-standing practices.”
Although the acquisition talks did not advance, Meta struck a partnership with Kalshi in March that allows users to view and interact with Kalshi markets on Meta’s social media app Threads.