New Orleans, built below sea level on subsiding marshland, faces a future shaped by rising seas and coastal erosion. A study published in May by Tulane University academic Torbjörn Törnqvist warned that the city has reached a “point of no return” — that sea level rise and subsidence could eventually force its abandonment. The study projects the Louisiana coastline could advance inland as much as 62 miles over the coming century.
The findings drew immediate criticism from local leaders. New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno said the study was “more focused on generating publicity and clickbait headlines” than offering solutions, pointing out that Miami faces flooding and San Francisco faces wildfires and earthquakes “yet no serious movement exists to declare those cities lost causes.” Gordon Dove, head of Louisiana’s coastal restoration agency, called it “the most ridiculous study I have ever seen” and said he did not believe Törnqvist “knows what he’s talking about.”
Some residents posted defiant videos near the levees with captions such as “STOP TELLING US TO MOVE” or characterized the study as “modern day redlining of an entire city.” Others, however, criticized what they described as climate denial by state and federal governments that has left New Orleans increasingly exposed.
Törnqvist, an expert on the Mississippi Delta’s marshlands, said the reaction from most New Orleanians who read the study and contacted him was more measured. “I’ve found it encouraging – we’ve had more constructive reactions than negative ones,” he said. He acknowledged that relocation is a difficult topic but argued the science is unambiguous. “Of course it’s upsetting to hear this, but cities like New Orleans have an expiration date,” he said. He predicted the city would eventually resemble “Venice, a few islands in a lagoon,” surrounded by open water.
He described Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry’s decision to cancel a $3 billion sediment diversion project — designed to rebuild the vanishing coastline with Mississippi River sediment — as a further “death penalty” for the city. Törnqvist stressed that the process is gradual, measured in generations, and said he is not planning to leave. “The general sentiment is that we are here, and we want to stay,” he said. “But we need to think differently about the city and relocation.”
New Orleans is already shrinking. The population fell in four of the last five years and now stands at just over 360,000 residents, driven partly by some of the highest home insurance rates in the country. Steve Picou, a musician and environmental planner, moved 130 miles northwest to Opelousas, Louisiana, after his annual home insurance premium jumped from $900 to about $9,000 over two decades. “The whole concept of relocation is overwhelming for people, they don’t like to think about it,” Picou said. “But there’s no escaping this climate. Towns are going to have the opportunity to be receiver communities and they need to start thinking about that now.”
A grassroots effort has begun to plan for that possibility. Debra Campbell, chair of the non-profit A Community Voice, said her organization has traveled to Vicksburg and Natchez, Mississippi — both about three hours from New Orleans — to assess those cities as potential relocation destinations. Local officials there welcomed the idea and discussed renovating empty homes and using public facilities as temporary shelters, she said.
“We’re only going to leave if we’re forced to leave due to hurricanes, flooding and the heavy industrialization of our neighborhoods,” Campbell said. She described the envisioned migration as an “exodus,” telling Mississippi officials: “We’re not coming to lay on your leg – we’re looking for employment. We want our kids in school. Once we’re pushed out of here, we have to have somewhere to go.”
A Community Voice is searching for private funders to acquire properties that could serve as climate refuges. Campbell acknowledged that few in her majority-Black Seventh Ward neighborhood want to leave permanently. “Nobody wants to leave home,” she said. But she added: “We do know if something hits like Katrina, it will be a while before we can return. There may come a time where we can’t return home. This place will be underwater and no longer exist.”
Arthur Johnson, chief executive of the Lower Nine Center for Sustainable Engagement and Development in the Lower Ninth Ward — an area devastated by Hurricane Katrina — said the focus should be on investment, not departure. “If you talk about leaving, it can be an excuse to not have economic development because you don’t have enough people, particularly in this community,” he said. “Where do you move anyway? Where’s affordable?”
For now, New Orleans is not sinking tomorrow. The levees hold. The pumps run. Törnqvist said the goal is to shift the conversation from denial to planning: “Let’s try to embrace it rather than deny it.”