Andy Burnham will take office with a £4.7bn gap in the UK’s defence spending plans after outgoing Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer published a long-delayed investment blueprint that the Treasury acknowledged is only partially funded.
Defence Minister Luke Pollard told the BBC that the next chancellor, “whoever that may be,” will have to “find the resources” in the autumn Budget. Burnham is widely expected to become prime minister on July 20 and to replace Rachel Reeves as chancellor, with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband seen as the frontrunner for the Treasury role.
In a speech on Tuesday, Starmer announced £15bn in new defence spending over four years as part of the Defence Investment Plan, which he said would reverse what he called the “corrosive hollowing out” of the armed forces under the previous Conservative government. The Treasury, however, said in a written statement to Parliament that only £10.3bn in savings had been identified so far, and that the remaining £4.7bn would be “confirmed at Budget 2026, in a fair and balanced way.”
Pollard told BBC Breakfast that “just over £4bn will be set out in the autumn Budget.” He described the approach as “pretty standard fare for the government to make an announcement and set out the details at the forthcoming budget,” noting that the previous government had done the same on several occasions.
The minister also revealed that Burnham had been informed about the funding gap on the day it was made public. “Downing Street have a close dialogue with Andy’s team … I understand they’ve been keeping him close to the process, and told him yesterday when the Treasury published the statement and the breakdown of the financial costs,” Pollard told Sky News.
Under the plan, overall UK defence spending will rise from 2.6% of national income in 2027 to 2.7%, or nearly £80bn, by 2030. Starmer said the UK was on track to spend 3% of GDP on defence in the next five-year Parliament, though he did not set a more specific date for that target — something defence chiefs and former Defence Secretary John Healey had called for. The plan puts the UK on a path to meet NATO’s core target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
Starmer ruled out further borrowing to fund the increase. Instead, the money will be found by cutting the long-term investment budgets of other government departments by 1%. The Department for Transport is making a further £700m in savings from road projects, with the A38 Derby Junctions and A46 Newark Bypass scheme being considered for cancellation. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is finding an additional £2bn from its budget. More detailed plans are expected in the autumn.