US murder rate fell to record low in 2025, criminologist says

Waning substance abuse, fewer gun purchases drove decline

The 2025 murder rate fell nearly 20% from 2024, according to preliminary data cited by Tuttle, likely making it the lowest rate since the U.S. began collecting reliable national murder data in 1960. MSI previously reported that homicides dropped 21% across 35 U.S. cities in 2025 and that Detroit recorded 165 homicides in 2025, its lowest tally since the early 1960s.

Tuttle, who wrote the book Crime Wave on homicide trends, wrote in an analysis published by The Conversation and distributed by United Press International that the murder rate has closely followed three trends over the past decade: alcohol consumption, drug abuse and firearm purchases. He said that as those crises wane and gun purchases fall, so too does the murder rate.

The previous murder rate low came in 2014, capping a decline that had been more or less continuous since the early 1990s, Tuttle wrote. The national murder rate then increased sharply in 2015 and 2016, and then by an even larger margin in 2020. By 2021, the homicide rate hit its highest level since the mid-1990s.

Tuttle said some researchers and commentators attributed the homicide spikes to a so-called “Ferguson effect” in 2015 and a “Minneapolis effect” in 2020 — theories that law enforcement officers were reluctant to be proactive or make arrests after nationwide protests against police brutality related to the police killings of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014, and George Floyd in Minneapolis in 2020. But Tuttle said the evidence for these claims is mixed, noting there is little consistent indication that a decline in proactive policing contributed to a crime increase in 2015, although the homicide spike in 2020 was likely exacerbated by a police “pullback.”

Tuttle wrote that the majority of the homicide spike in 2020 took place before June 2020, when protests over Floyd’s death spread nationwide, citing a study published in the journal Epidemiology that found the increase began as early as October 2019. He said de-policing in the summer of 2020 likely worsened the rise rather than caused it.

In his assessment, the crisis in violence during the 2015-2021 period was related to the “deaths of despair” crisis, which includes drug overdoses, suicides and alcohol-related fatalities. As the prescription opioid crisis gave way to the illicit opioid crisis, with use shifting toward heroin and fentanyl, it became deadlier and the drug market moved from pharmacists into the hands of street dealers, Tuttle wrote. He said it was not just the pharmacological effect of drugs but the systemic nature of drug markets — disputes between dealers, buyers and users — that contributed to the spike in homicides.

Alcohol consumption also accelerated during the same period, Tuttle wrote, noting alcohol decreases inhibition and that a high percentage of both homicide offenders and victims are under the influence of alcohol during a fatal assault. Amid growing distrust of the police and government, firearm sales began to increase during 2015 and 2016, setting an all-time record in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic likely exacerbated the substance abuse crisis, and the gun-buying spree was especially pronounced at three points: in March 2020, when the U.S. declared a national emergency over COVID-19; in June 2020, following the Floyd protests; and in the months surrounding the 2020 presidential election, Tuttle wrote. Given that assaults with a firearm are more likely to lead to the death of the victim than assaults using other weapons, confrontations became deadlier, he said.

After peaking in 2021, the murder rate began to fall, slowly at first in 2022, with substantial estimated declines in 2023, 2024 and 2025, Tuttle wrote. He said the reversal has followed a similar timeline as the substance abuse and firearm purchasing patterns, though some indicators of firearm possession, such as their use in suicides, remain elevated.

The murder rate is now falling back in line with other crime trends, many of which are among the lowest ever recorded, Tuttle wrote. As the substance abuse crises continue to wane, he said he expects murder rates to fall even further in the near future. With youth criminal involvement hitting historic lows, Tuttle wrote that the next generation appears to be one of the least criminally prone in decades, which bodes well for continued reductions in the murder rate.