Geologist: Moon base demands shift from mission mindset

Helium-3, rare earth metals identified as potential lunar exports

Building a permanent base on the Moon will require NASA to operate from a “campaign culture” rather than the traditional “mission mindset” that has governed its approach to space exploration, according to Clive Neal, a planetary geologist at the University of Notre Dame who has studied the Moon for 40 years.

“Going to the Moon to establish a permanent base on the surface will require returning to the same location, so that subsequent missions can build on the results of the previous ones,” Neal wrote. He said the shift requires a “major and rapid — almost immediate — change of philosophy at NASA.”

Neal’s analysis, republished Wednesday by United Press International from The Conversation, follows the Artemis II crew’s flyby of the Moon in spring 2026 and NASA’s stated goal of constructing a permanent lunar outpost by 2030.

The agency has outlined a three-phase road map toward a lunar base. Neal noted that NASA’s current aspirational manifest includes 79 launches and 73 lunar landings between now and 2036, most of them robotic until after 2027, when the agency plans two human landings per year.

Selecting a location for the base involves several criteria, Neal said. The site needs relatively flat ground for safe launch and landing areas, and there should be room for expansion to attract private-sector investment. The base would require access to power around the clock, whether from solar panels, fuel cells or nuclear fission. Access to local resources, such as water ice for life support and rocket fuel, would be critical for sustainability and economic activity.

Beyond water ice, Neal identified other resources on the Moon with potential economic value. Helium-3, which is abundant on the Moon but rare on Earth, could be used to cool quantum computers and potentially serve as fuel for nuclear fusion energy. Planetary scientists have also identified sites from lunar orbit data that could hold rare earth metals, which are critical minerals underpinning consumer electronics, clean energy, defense and advanced manufacturing.

Neal cautioned that researchers do not yet know whether these deposits are abundant or accessible enough to export. He said scientists will need to determine the amount of material in each deposit, its composition, and how extractable it is, and will need to develop refining methods and infrastructure tailored to the lunar environment. Prospecting rovers could gather the necessary data.

The technical challenges of keeping humans alive on the Moon will require new technologies, Neal wrote. He cited closed-loop life support systems that recycle carbon dioxide, heat, water, human waste and other produced waste, and mining without water — a necessity on the Moon that on Earth could eliminate the need for toxic tailing ponds that pose long-term environmental hazards.

Neal drew a comparison to the Apollo program, noting that smartphone technology emerged from developments that allowed for much smaller electronic devices. He said the Artemis program could open up a new sector of the global economy occupying the Moon’s surface and the space between Earth and the Moon.