A “super” El Niño event that forecasters say is increasingly likely would strike a global economy already strained by war-related disruptions to fertilizer supplies, an ongoing food-price crisis, and widening inequality between wealthy and poor nations, according to Benjamin Selwyn, a professor of international relations and international development at the University of Sussex.
Selwyn, in an analysis published June 9 by The Guardian, described 10 potential worst-case scenarios — from drought and wildfire to grid failures and civil conflict — that he said would disproportionately burden farmers and workers in the global south.
“Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific,” Selwyn wrote. “This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide.”
The phenomenon he described — what some meteorologists have called a “super” El Niño — is defined by ocean surface temperatures 2°C (3.6°F) or more above average. The event is expected to last into 2027, according to Selwyn.
Among the most immediate threats, Selwyn said, is the effect on global agriculture. Four crops — wheat, rice, maize and soybeans — provide more than 60% of the world’s calorie intake. Maize and rice are especially sensitive to El Niño, with drought and disrupted monsoons reducing yields in major producers such as South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil. Wheat faces heat and drought in key exporters including Australia, Canada and China, while soybean production has fallen in countries including Brazil and Argentina.
“Globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food supply chains,” Selwyn wrote.
The El Niño will occur during an already-existing fertilizer crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he noted, worsening the outlook for food production in rain-fed agricultural regions across sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. Drought in those areas has historically cut grain yields, increased import dependence and raised food prices, according to Selwyn.
Rising temperatures may also increase coal consumption, Selwyn said. El Niño brings above-average heat to South Asia by weakening monsoon rains, which increases demand for air conditioning. Coal-based power systems in Asia supply about 70% of electricity in India and approximately 55% in China, he wrote.
Drought simultaneously threatens hydropower generation. Colombia, which relies on hydropower for about 65% of its energy generation, experienced grid instability during the 2015–16 El Niño, and the government imposed power rationing during the 1992 event, Selwyn noted.
El Niño also heightens wildfire risk in some regions, Selwyn said. In South America, it often reduces wet-season rainfall, leaving vegetation drier and more fire-prone. Severe fires in Brazil in 2016 and 2024, he wrote, burned millions of hectares, released vast carbon stocks and will take decades to recover.
Fisheries along the coasts of California, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea and Micronesia could see declining catches as El Niño disrupts the upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water that supports phytoplankton, the base of the marine food web. Selwyn said upwelling-dependent fisheries face reduced biomass, leading to lower seasonal harvests and income.
Beyond the environmental effects, Selwyn said more extreme weather could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. As rising temperatures reduce crop fertility, farmers often respond by applying more fertilizer. Several countries — including China, some Gulf states and Algeria — have already deployed protectionist measures to limit fertilizer exports, while Russia has halted export licenses for ammonium nitrate, a crucial fertilizer ingredient. The United States is attempting to increase domestic production as part of its America First industrial policy.
“From a simple agricultural input, fertilizer production, trade and use could become another fracture in global politics,” Selwyn wrote.
Heat stress also threatens workers, particularly in physically demanding jobs in agriculture and construction. During the heat season in India’s capital Delhi, temperatures often exceed 40°C (104°F), putting workers’ health and lives at risk, Selwyn noted.
Finally, Selwyn pointed to research suggesting that reduced crop yields and weakened economies often intensify social tensions. The likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries can double during El Niño years, he wrote, citing a study that linked about 21% of conflicts since 1950 to climate patterns, including El Niño conditions.
“In Sudan, including Darfur, drought and harvest failures tied to climate variability including El Niño conditions, exacerbated resource scarcity and already-existing social inequalities, contributing to conflict dynamics,” Selwyn wrote.
Selwyn argued that the cumulative effect of these 10 scenarios reveals not just a climate event but a global system in which environmental shocks are transmitted through supply chains, unequal trade and energy consumption, disproportionately burdening the poor in the global south. He said that technology exists to transition to renewables and to build resilient agricultural systems, but that without large-scale political transformations, those solutions will remain uneven.