A survey published Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that European confidence in a US security guarantee has reached a historic low, with just 11% of respondents across 15 countries viewing the United States as an ally. The poll, conducted in May 2026, also showed majorities in every country surveyed are no longer confident the US would come to their aid if attacked.
The share of Europeans who see the US as an ally has fallen steadily — from 22% in November 2024 to 16% six months ago and now 11%, according to the survey. The prevailing view, held by a plurality of respondents, was that the US is now a “necessary partner”; 13% described the US as a rival and 12% as a direct adversary.
The ECFR authors said the findings reveal “deep European distrust in the US.” Factors cited in the report include US President Donald Trump’s Middle East aggression, threats against Greenland, vows to withdraw troops from European bases, and skepticism about the future of NATO.
Despite the distrust, most Europeans do not view the situation as permanent. The dominant view in almost every country surveyed was that US-European relations would “probably get better” after Trump leaves office — a view held by 60% or more of respondents in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden.
However, the survey found a growing pragmatism about European self-defense in the meantime. Europeans are now on average 4% more likely to support higher national defense spending than last year, the survey found. Italy was the only country where a clear majority remained opposed to higher spending.
Support for collective EU borrowing to finance greater defense spending stood at 47% on average, with 35% opposed. Support was strongest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%) and Spain.
In almost every country, most respondents said their country should reduce its strategic dependence on US military hardware. Backers of “buy European” defense procurement were most numerous in Denmark (75%), the Netherlands (72%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (69%), France (66%), Switzerland (64%), the UK and Spain (both 62%).
Support for replacing NATO with a new EU-only defense body was low, at 29% on average.
Jana Kobzová, a co-author and ECFR senior policy fellow, said: “Across the continent, there’s clear support for reducing dependence on Washington. Europeans are increasingly open to higher defence spending and, crucially, show a striking degree of confidence that neighbouring countries would come to their aid in a crisis.”
Her co-author, Paweł Zerka, said clear public demand for greater self-reliance and the need to hedge against US defense guarantees had “created a window for Europe’s leaders to go further and faster” on security.
The survey also asked about energy and Ukraine. Despite rising energy costs, 44% of Europeans said it would be a “rather bad” or “very bad” idea to resume importing oil and gas from Russia. Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU continues to divide European opinion: respondents in Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany and Estonia were more likely to oppose admitting Ukraine “in the current context” than support it, according to the survey.
The poll was conducted in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK — the 27 EU member states plus the UK and Switzerland — ahead of G7 and NATO summits in France and Turkey over the coming weeks.