A construction boom that delivered the most new apartment units in nearly four decades is reshaping the rental market in parts of the United States, giving tenants negotiating power that was largely absent in recent years. But the effect is sharply regional, with Sun Belt cities benefiting from a surge in supply while other metro areas, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, continue to see steep rent increases.
Zillow senior economist Kara Ng said the national trend is clearly in renters’ favor. “Renters, this is your year,” Ng said. The typical asking rent rose 1.9% year over year in April, according to Zillow, well below the 4.2% inflation rate reported in the May consumer price index. Realtor.com data showed an even sharper decline, with rents falling 1.5% year over year. Ng added that a record 39.8% of rentals on Zillow offered move-in incentives in April, from waived application fees to one month or more of free rent.
In Nashville, Tenn., apartment hunters reported property managers competing for tenants. Mason Comans, who was recently searching for an apartment, said landlords offered one month of free rent, then two months. “I even saw some places doing three months, three and a half months free,” Comans said. He eventually signed a lease on a newly built one-bedroom apartment with access to a pool, a private market, and two and a half months of free rent for $1,800 a month. Comans acknowledged the trade-off: he has moved four times in five years to keep securing concessions. “Then I would have to move to do that,” he said when asked about getting similar deals next year.
The national supply surge is rooted in a construction boom that delivered roughly 600,000 apartment units in 2024, the highest tally in 38 years. The resulting rental vacancy rate stood at 7.3% at the start of 2026, the highest in 12 years, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
But not every market is seeing relief. Chicago rents rose 5.4% year over year in April, according to Zillow, one of the fastest rates in the country. Chloe Troub, who rents a one-bedroom apartment in Chicago for $1,600, said she finds the notion of a national renter’s market “really insulting, just given the cost, the sheer cost, of putting a roof over your head right now.” When she looked for a larger space, the best deal she found was a sublet for $2,000 a month — enough to consume her boyfriend’s last raise. The person subletting the apartment told her he was not worried about finding a taker: he had 12 other showings lined up. “It’s a rat race out there,” he said.
The regional divide reflects simple supply and demand, Ng explained. Sun Belt cities such as Nashville, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas, have seen a concentrated wave of new apartment construction, leaving rental managers scrambling to fill units with concessions. “There’s a lot of apartment buildings hitting the market all at once,” Ng said. “And property managers are trying to fill it, and they’re doing it with freebies.”
Michelle Becker, a broker with Adaro Realty in Nashville, cautioned that the incentives are short-lived. “As soon as they get you locked in, you’re still getting rent increases every year,” Becker said. Even with concessions, rent remains far above pre-pandemic levels. Zillow data show the typical asking rent has climbed 36.9% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Comans, who pays $1,800 a month, said, “It is a lot of money. It’s not cheap at all.”