Over 140 San Francisco homes sold for $1m above asking, Compass reports

  • More than 140 homes in San Francisco sold for at least $1 million above their asking price in the first half of 2026, with 44 in June alone, according to Compass data.
  • Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen described the overbidding as “absolutely BANANAS” and attributed it to AI-driven hiring, migration, and anticipation of major IPOs.
  • Single-family home prices rose about 17% year over year to a $2.2 million median, while inventory dropped roughly 45%, the analysis found.
  • The trend is concentrated in luxury and near AI employment centers, with other tech hubs not showing similar overbidding, according to Compass and Redfin economists.

Overbidding concentrated in luxury tier, Compass report says

Compass’s analysis found that from January through July 2025, only eight homes sold for at least $1 million above asking in San Francisco. In the first six months of 2024, just six homes cleared that threshold. The figures are a large increase from prior periods, which Simonsen attributed broadly to the artificial intelligence industry’s expansion in the city.

“Of course related to the AI boom,” Simonsen said of the pattern. “It’s migration and hiring, as well as preparing for mega IPOs.”

OpenAI and Anthropic, both headquartered in San Francisco, have filed to go public on U.S. stock markets at valuations approaching $1 trillion. Their debuts are expected to mint a new class of multimillionaires in a city that already has the highest concentration of billionaires per capita of any city globally.

The single-family median home price in San Francisco rose from $1.7 million to $2.2 million over the past year, Compass reported. Houses are selling in an average of 18 days, the fastest pace in five years. The company’s market intelligence report described aggressive bidding wars driven by AI and tech demand, with skyrocketing rents becoming the norm again.

Simonsen said the resurgent demand is so far concentrated “to a very small section in the city, and luxury markets in Peninsula and Marin.” The Compass report characterized the market as “increasingly segmented by income tier and proximity to AI-driven employment centers.” He also noted that other tech hubs across the country have not exhibited a similar pattern of overbidding.

A May 2026 analysis from real-estate firm Redfin ranked San Francisco as having the highest median home price in the country and the biggest year-over-year increase in median sales price — more than 10% in April — followed by Detroit and Providence, Rhode Island.

As reported by the Guardian, which cited the New York Times, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, said: “What’s different this time is that the benefits or the prosperity of AI seems much more concentrated. It’s not that everybody is going out and buying homes.”

The current surge marks a shift from a few years ago, when departures as well as concerns about crime and homelessness contributed to a slump.