Mexico says U.S. to restore sugar access as USDA projects 512% jump

November 2025 Sheinbaum-Rollins talks set stage for sugar deal

The Mexican presidency said the new conditions could generate a potential increase of up to 4.76 billion pesos, about $272 million, in the price paid by the sugar industry to roughly 170,000 Mexican sugarcane producers.

The talks that led to the announcement began in November 2025 during a visit by U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to President Claudia Sheinbaum, according to the statement. The Mexican government said the outcome demonstrates that “through dialogue it is possible to build important agreements” benefiting agricultural producers and food consumers in both countries.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated the country will need to import up to 1,152,000 tons of Mexican sugar during the 2026-2027 marketing year, according to the Mexican government. The estimate, 512% higher than the current-year forecast, appeared in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published July 10.

Sugar trade between the two countries has been regulated since late 2014 under so-called suspension agreements, according to background information published by the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System. In June 2017, the governments reached an agreement in principle that reduced the share of refined Mexican sugar imports to 30% from the previous 53% limit, while increasing the share of raw sugar, the regional organization reported.

The U.S. sugar industry initially refused to support the 2017 agreement, according to the regional organization’s records. Then-Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Mexico had accepted nearly all the requests made by the industry, but U.S. producers still did not support the proposed terms.

U.S. refiners argued that high-quality Mexican raw sugar was reaching consumers directly instead of passing through their plants, according to the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System. The dispute involved a coalition of U.S. sugarcane and sugar beet producers, as well as ASR Group, maker of Domino Sugar, and Imperial Sugar. ASR Group and Imperial Sugar said at the time that the 2014 agreement did not provide sufficient supplies for their refining operations and had asked the U.S. government to end the pact, the regional organization reported.