Niskanen Center study finds no effect on violent crime

Nearly a year after President Donald Trump declared a crime emergency in the nation’s capital and deployed thousands of National Guard troops under a presidential executive order, that order was extended this week through January 2029, according to the Guardian. For roughly 10 months, between 2,000 and 2,500 troops have patrolled metro stations, parks, city streets, and tourist attractions. In July, the number doubled to more than 5,000 troops from over a dozen states as part of a “summer surge” tied to the country’s 250th birthday celebration.

“It’s a city under siege,” said Mike Licht, a resident of 40 years. “I’ve seen some changes, but this is the most disturbing one. Armed troops aimlessly walking our streets, they’ve got nothing to do, they’re bored.”

Every night in Lincoln Park, residents bang spoons and ladles against metal pots and pans for five minutes — a cacerolazo, a form of protest dating to the 1830s — followed by the chant “We’ll be back.” Chris Salm, a resident in the area, said: “As long as they’re going to be here, I’m going to be here. We need to show some resistance to what’s happening to our city.”

District officials have pushed for the troops’ withdrawal but have limited authority because Washington is not a state. Mayor Muriel Bowser cannot call up the D.C. National Guard unilaterally — she can only request them — and city officials have no control over deployments from other states.

“The national guard is not contributing to law enforcement,” said D.C. Council Chair Phil Mendelson. “The presence of armed soldiers on our streets is unnecessary, hurts potential visitors to the district, creates the wrong impression about safety, and that’s not helpful.”

D.C. Councilwoman Janeese Lewis George, the presumptive Democratic nominee for mayor, said governors have been “bullied, bribed and misled into misusing their national guard for armed patrols of DC neighborhoods that result in harm to the troops themselves and our community in DC.” She added: “It’s been almost a year, and we must not normalize this.”

The Trump administration has argued the deployment helps reduce crime. The Justice Department reported that the broader DC Safe and Beautiful Task Force — composed of more than 30 federal agencies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement — has made more than 13,900 arrests, removed more than 1,500 firearms, and found 23 missing children since the operation began last August. The task force will continue for three more years, the Justice Department said.

But analysis from the Niskanen Center, a nonpartisan think tank, found the National Guard deployment had very little effect on violent crime, despite a cost of about $1.65 million per day. The report found the deployment led to a 24% drop in “opportunistic” property crime within the first six months, but the Guard’s presence had no effect on violent crime, which had already been declining in recent years.

Last November, two National Guard members were shot in an ambush-style attack at a D.C. Metro station. Spc. Sarah Beckstrom was killed and Sgt. Andrew Wolfe was seriously injured, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.

“There is an occupation of our community,” said Keya Chatterjee, executive director of Free DC, a grassroots collective alliance of D.C. residents resisting Trump’s policies. “One of the most dangerous things they’ve done is they’ve normalized the presence of the military on our streets.” Chatterjee said Free DC volunteers have helped direct traffic away from National Guard checkpoints and have documented intense encounters between Guard troops and residents, posting videos on social media. “It is very surreal and isolating, because the rest of the country, the rest of the world, doesn’t seem to understand that we are 10 months into a military occupation,” she said.

Darius Baxter, chief engagement officer of GoodProjects DC, a nonprofit focused on supporting D.C. youth and families, said the Guard is not patrolling areas with the highest crime rates. “It’s not uncommon to see the national guardsmen congregating around the Safeway, sort of dispersing people for loitering versus seeing them position in and around the public housing community, supporting young people that often find themselves in the line of gunfire,” Baxter said. He said reducing crime would require addressing root causes: “What we’re seeing is the product of a population of young people that were undersocialized, undereducated and underinvested in.”

Back in Northeast Washington, the nightly banging of pots and pans continues next to the statue of Abraham Lincoln. Licht said he and his neighbors will keep up the protests until the Guard leaves. “It’s five minutes of the first amendment,” he said.