Gaza stabilization force and new police force remain far from operational
Practical obstacles and unresolved sequencing questions complicate plan
Trump said on social media that “the agreement will be carried out in carefully structured phases” and that “as disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw, and the International Stabilization Force will work with a new Palestinian police force to take responsibility for Gaza being safe for its residents and its neighbors.”
The announcement came as negotiations over the ceasefire’s second phase had largely deadlocked. Trump’s original 20-point peace plan was designed to end the war in phases, with progress in one area unlocking new steps in another. The first phase included the release of all remaining hostages taken during the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which triggered the war.
From the start, the plan was hamstrung by a sequencing dispute: Hamas insists Israel withdraw before it turns over weapons, while Israel refuses to relinquish territory until the group is completely dismantled. Both sides appeared to be maintaining those positions Friday.
Hamas pushed back against Trump’s narrative in particular. Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s negotiating team, told the Wall Street Journal: “We didn’t say disarmament, we didn’t say handing over the weapons, and we didn’t agree on any Israeli involvement.” Hamas said it agreed only to relinquish heavy weapons, stopping short of a pledge to hand over light arms such as assault rifles, which security analysts say are crucial to the group’s control over the population.
Israel’s position is similarly firm. Ben-Gvir, who is part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, rejected the draft publicly on Friday. An Israeli official reiterated that Israel demands genuine demilitarization of Palestinian forces in Gaza before it is willing to pull its troops back. Netanyahu, who faces elections later this year, has not commented publicly on the plan and is reluctant to accept any arrangement short of Hamas’s complete surrender.
The practical obstacles are substantial. A U.S. military official said the new Palestinian police force that would decommission Hamas’s weapons is still in the early stages of taking shape, with thousands of candidates being vetted but not yet hired or trained. The International Stabilization Force, which Trump originally envisioned as a 20,000-strong force spread throughout Gaza, has an initial contingent of 10 to 20 troops that has yet to deploy. The official said it might be months before even limited operations inside Gaza can begin.
“To me this all sounds unrealistic,” said Amir Avivi, a former senior Israeli defense official. “We’re talking about a very, very long-term process.”
Since the ceasefire took effect nine months ago, Israel has expanded its area of control to command almost 70% of the territory, squeezing Gaza’s population into an ever-shrinking space. Local health authorities say more than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli attacks since the ceasefire, without specifying how many were combatants. The plan also called for the establishment of a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza — a group of Palestinian technocrats to eventually govern the enclave — and a Board of Peace chaired by Trump to oversee the process.
About 80% of Gaza’s roughly 2.1 million people are now displaced, with about half of them living in encampments reliant on humanitarian aid. Residents expressed skepticism about the announcement. “To be honest, most of us in Gaza don’t believe it — there has been no real sense of joy or celebration,” said Dina Hamada, a mother of four living in Gaza City. “Maybe that’s because we’ve lived through too many promises. Every time we allowed ourselves to hope, reality ended up crushing us.”
The competing interests of the main parties complicate prospects for progress. Trump is under growing pressure over the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has wreaked havoc on global energy markets and ignited a cascade of conflicts in the region, including in Lebanon and Yemen. “Trump is really eager to demonstrate an accomplishment,” said Michael Milshtein, a former senior Israeli intelligence officer. “Things are very complicated in Iran and Lebanon, and I think he really wants to show he’s achieved something in Gaza.”
Hamas, battered by Israel’s yearslong assault, has seen its popular support erode. Early in July, the group’s governing body said it was ready to hand power over to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, which some political analysts took as a sign that its grip on civil affairs may have been slipping.