Subic Bay reopens to U.S. military decades after 1992 pullout
The deep, sheltered waters of the U.S. naval base at Subic Bay hosted aircraft carriers and submarines during the Cold War. To build an airport, the Navy flattened a mountain. When the USS Independence pulled away in March 1992, sailors stood in formation on the carrier’s runway to spell out “Farewell Subic,” and months later the sprawling base was formally handed over to the Philippines, which had decided to end nearly a century of American military presence.
Now the American military is returning — not only to Subic Bay but across the country, though less out in the open. The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally and former colony of roughly 117 million people, sits on some of the most strategic real estate in the world, according to The Wall Street Journal. U.S. war planners are deploying some of their most advanced missile systems there, conducting increasingly complex exercises and upgrading local bases to accommodate U.S. equipment and supplies.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the alliance “a partnership that is only growing” ahead of a meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the longtime dictator who anchored U.S. policy in the country for much of the Cold War. Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, called the Philippines a “model ally” on his own trip to Manila this month — praise the Journal noted as unusual given the Trump administration’s ambivalence toward other alliances, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
A quieter return to Subic Bay
In 2022, U.S. private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, co-founded by now-Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg, beat out Chinese companies to take control of a commercial shipyard in Subic Bay. One of the tenants is a Korean shipbuilder, which analysts say could help repair U.S. vessels. The U.S. Coast Guard this year deployed more nimble patrol craft in Subic Bay for the first time. When Journal reporters visited earlier this year, they saw vehicles with U.S. Marine Corps markings being transported from the base’s former airport on flatbed trucks.
The Marines already maintain a warehouse for humanitarian and disaster relief equipment, according to the local government, and the Navy last year sought to lease space for storage and maintenance of vehicles. A U.S. government contracting document from April said the Army was looking to hire security to “support controlled storage and weapon systems at two separate sites” within Subic Bay. U.S. Pacific Command, which oversees U.S. forces from India to Hawaii, declined to provide more detail on the status of U.S. infrastructure on the former base, saying “Subic Bay is an important commercial hub that enables logistics coordination between the United States and” the Philippine military.
Beyond Subic Bay, the U.S. has formal access to nine Philippine bases and airports where it can rotate forces, build infrastructure and store equipment. Washington has committed more than $300 million to upgrading these bases with new hangars, better runways and more storage, and last year the Pentagon set up Task Force-Philippines, made up of 60 servicemembers deployed in the country, to increase coordination with Manila.
Missiles and drills aimed at Beijing
In June, the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or Nmesis — a new antiship missile launcher mounted on a remote-controlled truck — rolled onto the runway on Itbayat, one of the Philippines’ most northern islands. The missiles it fires have a range of about 115 miles, which from Itbayat would allow U.S. Marines to take out Chinese warships trying to cross south of Taiwan. Weeks earlier, the Army test-fired a Tomahawk missile, with a range of up to about 1,200 miles, from the island of Leyte. At a naval base on the main island of Luzon, the Marines practiced downing drones using their latest truck-mounted counterdrone system.
The drills are a test run for maneuvers that would be crucial to a potential U.S. response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the Journal reported. In such a scenario, small squads of troops with drones or mobile antiship missile launchers would be deployed to Philippine islands to harass Chinese ships, while U.S. aircraft could fly missions from Philippine air bases, dispersing the planes and making them harder for China to target with missile strikes.
“The Philippines’ geography is irreplaceable,” said Brian Harding, a former Pentagon official who took part in early discussions regarding access to Philippine bases during the Obama administration. “We’re not going to have U.S. bases in the Philippines,” he said, “but the idea is to have the United States present continually and deeply familiar with the facilities.”
Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Philippine airfields need better power generation, expanded ramp space and upgraded structures to protect against missile attacks to be of use in a conflict. “We’ve been heading in the right direction,” he said, “but that effort probably needs to be put on steroids.”
China’s objections and South China Sea clashes
The closer U.S. ties have put the Philippines in Beijing’s crosshairs. Chinese officials have denounced the U.S.-Philippine military drills as a provocation and said they destabilize the region, and state-run media recently published a video depicting the Philippines as a monkey acting at the direction of the U.S. and Japan.
In the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by both China and the Philippines, Chinese navy, coast guard and maritime militia vessels regularly clash with Philippine vessels. In one recent incident, a Philippine sailor suffered a head injury after Chinese coast guard personnel hit the sailor with a baton, according to the Philippine military. Chinese vessels have also used water cannon and other tactics to ward off Philippine boats from disputed features.
Philippine officials reject the idea that Manila’s cooperation with Washington increases the risk of a conflict. “The Philippines will only be a target if there’s a bad actor with bad intentions against the Philippines,” Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said in an interview. He said he is not worried about America’s commitment and that cooperation between the two countries has grown. “The Philippines has nothing to complain about,” he said.
Risks and local sentiment
There are risks to the current strategy for both countries. The U.S. depends on Philippine authorities to authorize specific activities on or use of the bases, such as storing specific weapons systems, and President Marcos has said its territory cannot be used for offensive action. Elections in 2028 could usher in an unfriendly administration — perhaps one led by Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who crimped U.S. military exercises in the country and favored closer ties with Beijing. Recent U.S. moves, including the war in Iran and Trump’s efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing, have injected uncertainty into Washington’s pledges to defend Asian allies, the Journal reported.
In Subic Bay, there are mixed feelings about the expanding presence despite overall strong support for the alliance. “Economically speaking, we have been waiting for it,” said Rolen Paulino Jr., the mayor of Olongapo, the town near the former base. Still, “the Philippines being involved in war and of course Olongapo being in the middle of it…it’s a little unsettling.”
In the waters off Subic Bay, local fishermen like Ryan Jacinto, who are frequently harassed by Chinese vessels out at sea, say they feel safer when U.S. ships are around. “It puts China in a difficult position. If the U.S. has a base here, they hesitate,” he said. “The Chinese are not that aggressive when they are facing the U.S.”
MSI previously reported that Colby, in an Aug. 11 speech in Manila, described Washington’s posture as “deterrence by denial” along the First Island Chain, saying the United States is “digging in” in Asia and plans to rotationally deploy four Fast Response Cutters to patrol the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.