GM's century-long US sales lead over Toyota shrinks to 100,000 vehicles

Toyota expands US production while GM prioritizes higher margins

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, wearing a yellow safety vest and goggles, celebrated a ribbon-cutting this week at a Lansing factory where General Motors had scrapped plans for an electric-vehicle battery plant. The facility began production this week after Toyota agreed to shift a $1.5 billion order there. The shift placed batteries in service of a Japanese rival rather than a hometown carmaker — a fact the source noted the crowd understood and Whitmer herself sidestepped when asked. “My goal is always to make sure the investment happens here,” she said. “And that it ultimately produces good-paying jobs.”

The Lansing factory illustrates a broader competitive shift. Twenty years ago, GM sold roughly twice as many cars and trucks in the United States as Toyota. Through July 2026, the lead had narrowed to just over 100,000 vehicles, according to figures cited by The Wall Street Journal. Both automakers have sold about 1.5 million vehicles this year.

GM has reached that point by walking away from the volume race. Under Chief Executive Mary Barra, who took the role in 2014, the company has killed traditional sedans, shut its robotaxi business, exited Europe and India, and refused to chase market share with discounts. “If GM no longer really wants to be the biggest player, selling fewer things at a higher margin is a perfectly legitimate strategy,” said Erik Gordon, a professor of entrepreneurial studies at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. “It’s a little bit sad for the U.S. industry, but it might be the right thing for the company.”

The strategy has delivered for shareholders. GM is on track for near-record operating profits this year, and its share price is up 50% from a year ago, trading at record highs. “Structurally, GM is much more sound than I think it’s ever been historically,” finance chief Paul Jacobson said in a recent podcast. The company still sells subcompact SUVs to budget buyers but builds them in South Korea, where it can eke out a profit.

GM’s earnings remain heavily dependent on trucks. The Silverado pickup, which typically sells for more than $50,000, is the second-best-selling vehicle in the United States and remains highly profitable. That dependence shapes the company’s customer base: GM wins among truck buyers seeking roominess and power and among American-brand loyalists, while Toyota appeals more to eco-conscious buyers and those prioritizing reliability and efficiency.

Toyota’s lineup is moving in the opposite direction. Corolla and Camry sales, models starting at $24,000 and $30,000 respectively, posted double-digit increases this year. The hybrid-heavy portfolio has paid off as high gasoline prices steer buyers away from full-electric vehicles. Toyota is also investing billions to expand American production in Texas and Kentucky — investments that come as its market share in once-lucrative China falls and as global car markets stagnate.

Toyota is the world’s largest automaker by sales and is roughly twice as profitable as GM. The company recently raised its annual earnings forecast, saying it will benefit from a weaker yen and from a smaller impact from the Iran war than initially expected. Even after the Trump administration’s tariffs resulted in a $9 billion profit hit for Toyota in its last fiscal year, the company has continued to deliver solid results.

The Lansing facility was originally built as a planned EV battery plant with LG Energy Solution; GM scrapped the project and sold its stake in 2024. Toyota’s agreement to move a $1.5 billion order to the site allowed production to begin, putting the dormant plant to work at a moment when the overall US auto market is shrinking amid historically high vehicle prices and economic uncertainty.

Barra’s strategy is being tested on multiple fronts. GM has laid off thousands of factory workers since last year, and its factory utilization rate has declined to 73% this year from 78.5% in 2024, according to consulting firm AutoForecast Solutions. Manufacturers typically target utilization of 80% to 85%; Toyota sits at 91.9%. GM said its capacity use will improve as it adds new models and reshores production in response to tariffs, which cost the company $3.1 billion last year.

GM’s ambitious EV push stumbled as tax incentives and pro-electric regulations vanished in President Trump’s second term, but the EVs GM sold were largely high-margin trucks and luxury models, which have mostly survived despite slow sales. The company has continued to focus on streamlining operations, developing connected and self-driving technology, and building subscription services, according to the Wall Street Journal account.

The competitive trajectory has prompted analyst predictions. “It took 50 years, but maybe the naysayers were correct that Toyota is going to take over the U.S. market,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. Chesbrough drew headlines this summer with a forecast that Toyota could soon pass GM. “There is certainly a lot of pride involved — the idea that an American company ought to lead the American market,” he said.

Toyota’s brief dethronement of GM in 2021 was a temporary blip GM blamed on pandemic supply-chain bottlenecks and the global microchip crisis, which limited the supply of some GM models. This time, the shift has been slower but more sustained. If not for a severe shortage of the newest version of Toyota’s RAV4, Chesbrough said, GM might have already slipped into second.

A GM spokesman said the company also has vehicles in short supply that have constrained sales, and both automakers say market share is only one measure of success. Mark LaNeve, a former executive who headed GM’s sales operations before its 2009 bankruptcy and later held the same job at Ford Motor, recalled that monthly market-share reports once moved the stock in real time. “It was scrutinized monthly,” LaNeve said. “I’d do these monthly calls to report sales and the stock would go up and down in real time.”

GM was cobbled together in the early 1900s through a roll-up of disparate car companies and at its height controlled more than half of the US market. Humbled by its 2008-09 bankruptcy, executives vowed a different path. GM is now delivering near-record profits and trading at record share-price highs. Toyota, meanwhile, is closing in.