WHO estimates nearly 11 million measles cases globally in 2026

Bangladesh leads global case count amid vaccine funding shortfalls

The World Health Organization estimates that nearly 11 million people will contract measles in 2026, with the largest outbreaks concentrated in Africa and Asia but resurgences now reported across the Americas and Europe, according to analysis by University of Richmond epidemiologist Kathryn H. Jacobsen published Aug. 21 by United Press International. The reversal stems from declining vaccination rates since the COVID-19 pandemic and has erased public-health gains that had cut estimated annual cases from 38 million in 2000 to roughly 10 million in 2019.

Measles has no specific treatment, but two doses of vaccine are highly effective at preventing infection. Because the virus is so contagious, at least 95% of a community must be vaccinated to interrupt transmission, a threshold known as herd immunity. Most high-income countries report coverage near that level. In Europe, average one-dose vaccination rates stand at about 94% and two-dose rates at about 88%, according to figures cited by Jacobsen. In the United States, more than 90% of 2-year-olds have received at least one dose and more than 92% of kindergartners have received two, though coverage falls well below 95% in some school districts.

In low- and middle-income countries, the picture is markedly different. Only about 80% of young children have received one dose and about 70% have received two, according to Jacobsen. Almost every country saw reduced vaccine access during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when supply chains and clinic operations were disrupted. While high-income countries largely caught children up before school age, millions of children in lower-income countries remain classified as “zero-dose” — having received none of the vaccines their national programs recommend. Outbreaks in 2026 have been reported in countries experiencing armed conflict or housing refugees displaced by war, including Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen, with additional epidemics in Maldives and Zambia and a surge in cases in India.

Bangladesh has reported more measles cases in 2026 than any other country, with more than 900 deaths recorded from the infection. The surge follows the collapse of the country’s longtime government in 2024 and the installation of an interim administration that, during a period of political instability, ordered too few vaccine doses. Shortages worsened in 2025 when the interim government stopped procuring vaccines through UNICEF and attempted a competitive bidding process before new supply chains were in place.

Bangladesh has since resumed working with UNICEF to acquire vaccines, but it returned at a time when Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which subsidizes initial vaccine purchases for low- and middle-income countries through pooled orders and market-negotiated pricing, is facing substantial budget shortfalls. Since 2025, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States and several other high-income countries have significantly reduced their development assistance budgets, leaving Gavi with a substantial shortfall. As Bangladesh’s economy has grown, it is paying a larger share of its own vaccine costs, but the country cannot yet fully self-finance its program. A mass vaccination campaign in early 2026 vaccinated more than 1 million Bangladeshi children, but coverage remains well below the 95% threshold required to prevent epidemics.

The Americas — North, Central, and South America and the Caribbean — was classified as a measles-free zone as recently as two years ago. Canada officially lost its elimination status in November 2025 after more than a year of sustained transmission. Mexico and the United States have met the criteria to lose their measles-free status and are expected to do so when the Pan American Health Organization’s measles elimination committee next meets in November 2026.

Guatemala has reported the largest outbreak in the region, with more than 30,000 confirmed cases logged in 2026. The epidemic has been traced to a December 2025 gathering in Santiago Atitlán organized by a Christian megachurch whose leaders have publicly opposed vaccination. In Canada, Mexico and the United States, measles began circulating in late 2024 and early 2025 among rural, conservative Mennonite communities where leaving children unvaccinated has become the cultural norm. Outbreaks in South Carolina and Utah have been linked to low vaccination rates among conservative religious groups that are not affiliated with Mennonite churches.

The United States has already recorded more measles cases in 2026 than in any year since 1991. The virus has moved from religious communities into other undervaccinated population groups: the epidemic that began in Mennonite villages in Mexico spread into neighboring Indigenous communities, and an outbreak that began among German-speaking Mennonites in Bolivia crossed into Peru and was amplified by visitors to large cultural festivals who carried the virus home.

Solutions differ by setting, Jacobsen wrote. In low- and middle-income countries, ending measles epidemics will require increasing funding for Gavi and other international partnerships so vaccine supply can grow to meet demand. In high-income countries where vaccines are readily available but uptake is falling, stopping transmission will depend on the more challenging work of building vaccine confidence among parents of young children.

Jacobsen is a professor of health studies at the University of Richmond. The article was originally published by The Conversation and republished by United Press International under a Creative Commons license.