European gas hits three-year high as winter supply worries mount

U.S. natural gas futures rise 1.7% on southern heat forecast

European natural gas prices climbed 4% on Monday to their highest level in more than three years as traders grew increasingly concerned about supply ahead of winter, while U.S. natural gas futures rose on forecasts of extended extreme heat across the southern United States.

The benchmark Dutch TTF contract was up 4.2% at €68.61 per megawatt-hour in afternoon trading. European gas storage stands at 62% full, leaving the region increasingly dependent on a mild winter to curb heating demand.

Strengthening Asian demand continues to pull LNG cargoes away from European buyers, adding to the challenge of replenishing European storage ahead of winter. With competition for cargoes intensifying, traders have grown increasingly concerned about the supply balance.

Nymex natural gas futures rose 1.7% to $2.821 per million British thermal units in early trading, supported by at least two more weeks of extremely hot weather, particularly across the southern U.S., expected to drive power-sector demand.

NatGasWeather.com said in a note that “overall, weather patterns are viewed as bullish the front 10 days, but then closer to seasonal for the 11-15 day period.” The forecaster added that “we expect a volatile week in the natural gas markets and partly due to approaching expiration of Sep’26 options and futures.”

European gas benchmarks have climbed steadily since mid-summer, when the Dutch TTF contract briefly approached levels seen at the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict and analysts warned of tight winter supply. As MSI previously reported, the supply risks identified then have only intensified in the weeks since.