UIC study finds ICE enforcement drained $1.26 billion from Chicago commerce

ICE detention hits record 65,000; most detainees lack criminal convictions

A University of Illinois Chicago study published this week found that immigration enforcement operations that began in January 2025 cost retail shops and restaurants in non-immigrant Chicago neighborhoods roughly $1.26 billion through reduced consumer mobility, with the behavior shift persisting for about a year without recovery.

The study, which used anonymous cellphone GPS data to track movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods across Cook County, found that cross-neighborhood travel collapsed after Jan. 20, 2025, amid rumors and reports that Chicago would be targeted for immediate Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, according to NPR.

Co-author Matt Wilson told NPR that the economic effects extended well beyond immigrant communities themselves. “We see a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persisted for about a year,” Wilson said. “And it’s not that it recovered after a year. People’s behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025.”

The study estimates that decreased consumer mobility cost Illinois roughly $107 million in lost tax revenue.

Researchers identified the days surrounding the 2025 inauguration as when behavior shifts began. “I have to go grocery shopping, but I haven’t. What if ICE is there?” a Chicago waitress named Caridad told NPR at the time, requesting that her last name be withheld for fear of being targeted. “People are more than afraid, they’re panicking.”

Wilson said the new study also challenges assumptions about immigrant community isolation. “I think a lot of people treat Latino and some immigrant communities as if they’re insular and isolated,” Wilson said. “But it’s really that these communities are much more integrated into the broader economy, and they are making trips to faraway places in the county, routinely.”

The immigration detention population sits at a record high of approximately 65,000 people, according to NPR. The White House defended its enforcement strategy. In a statement to NPR, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said, “Removing these criminals from the streets makes communities safer for business owners and customers. Nearly 70% of ICE arrests are of illegal aliens charged or convicted of a crime in the U.S.”

However, ICE’s own agency statistics show that roughly 70% of those currently detained have no criminal convictions.

The UIC report joins other research finding significant economic effects from immigration enforcement on broader local economies. A Brookings Institution report estimates a roughly 1.7 percentage point decline in aggregate consumer spending in high-enforcement states. In Minneapolis, the city estimates total economic damage from ICE enforcement sweeps there at nearly $700 million, with small businesses in the city losing more than $81 million in revenue in January alone.