Five men released on bail after RAF Fairford terror plot arrests

Constabulary alerted to vans an hour before farmer’s 999 call

In the early hours of Sunday, a farmer from the village of Whelford was returning home from a party along quiet rural roads in the Cotswolds, The Guardian reported. Around 1 a.m., she encountered three vans “parked in a really weird fan shape” blocking the path to her farm, close to the perimeter of RAF Fairford, an airbase operated by the US Air Force. Forced to turn around, she described seeing “a large group of hooded and masked men” at a nearby junction, who quickly dispersed.

After a failed attempt to contact the Ministry of Defence, she phoned police at 1:36 a.m. and posted in a local residents’ WhatsApp group. Roughly 10 minutes later, armed officers were on the scene. Five men — UK nationals from London aged 23 to 25 — were arrested 300 metres from the base’s perimeter, first under the Explosives Act and subsequently on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. All five were released on bail Monday. In interviews with The Guardian, the farmer reiterated her belief that her tip-off “foiled whatever plans” were unfolding. “I am absolutely staggered that it was left to me, as a member of the public, to see and report this,” she said.

But details that emerged Monday suggest the arrests may have been the culmination of a security operation underway for days. Gloucestershire constabulary said it was first alerted to the three suspicious vans at 12:45 a.m. Sunday — nearly an hour before the farmer’s 999 call. The farmer acknowledged there had been “activity” by what she “assumed were plain-clothed police officers” in the area in recent days, and a neighbour told the BBC that armed police stopped them while walking their dog early Saturday evening and told them to return home. The Guardian observed that the speed with which armed officers and police helicopters arrived at a rural location in the middle of the night appears improbable.

Defence Secretary Wes Streeting thanked the farmer but said her account offered only “a partial picture,” hinting UK security services had prior awareness. President Donald Trump said US and UK agencies had worked together and had the five men “under view for a long time,” adding that the suspects “were looking to do big damage to our fort, and working with the British worked out great.”

Counter-terror police confirmed the three vehicles had been travelling overnight and were subject to extensive examination, with the support of military assets and forensic experts. The material found inside them was not viable explosives, police said, though the investigation continues.

Laurence Taylor, head of UK National Counter Terrorism Policing, said Monday afternoon it may have been the work of proxies or individuals working on behalf of a foreign state. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News on Monday night that a foreign actor was involved but provided no evidence.

Iran is the centre of speculation, having explicitly stated it considers RAF Fairford “a legitimate target.” On Monday, the Iranian embassy said it “categorically rejects” any involvement. RAF Fairford’s two-mile runway was specially constructed by the US military to allow long-range bombers to take off and land, and the base has played a significant role in the US bombing campaign against Iran. Since former prime minister Keir Starmer allowed the US to use UK bases in its strikes on Iran, bomb-laden B-52 and B-1 aircraft have regularly been spotted taking off from Fairford. The base is one of only two available to the US in Europe that can facilitate these operations, after Spain, France, Italy and Switzerland rejected similar American requests.

“Most observers and analysts would place Iran at the top of the list of potential suspects here,” Jason Burke, The Guardian’s international security correspondent, said, “though we have very little in the way of information to work on, so it’s entirely possible an altogether different scenario is at play.”

Burke said Iran’s modus operandi — “borrowing a leaf from the Russian playbook” — relies on using local hires. “Instead of deploying their own intelligence operatives, they recruit low-grade agents on the ground, some of whom may not fully realise what they are involved in,” he said.

Since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, a series of UK security incidents have been linked with Tehran. Earlier this month, a man and a woman were arrested after raids on homes in north London on suspicion of assisting Iran’s foreign intelligence service. In March, four Jewish community ambulances were destroyed in an arson attack — counter-terror police explored Iranian-proxy involvement, though aside from a reference to a “terrorist connection,” no mention of Iran was made in court when four men admitted responsibility. Iran’s embassy in London has denied involvement in tens of other antisemitic attacks in the UK and Europe for which similar suggestions have been made.

In April, Burke reported that direct proof of Iran’s involvement in UK incidents remained elusive, but the consensus among security officials was that the attacks appear to be part of a campaign of hybrid warfare launched by Tehran. More evidence has since emerged, in part through the prosecution in a US court of 32-year-old Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi. “This case laid out in extraordinary detail how he, on behalf of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, commissioned, organised, and executed a series of attacks in Europe, including in Britain,” Burke said.

If Iran is proven responsible, an intended attack on this scale would represent a significant escalation. “It would be a major step up from targeting synagogues, Israeli embassies and US-owned banks,” Burke said, “given this is a piece of major military infrastructure in Britain.”

With Andy Burnham now leading a new government, a recalibration of UK foreign policy is possible. Burnham has said he would be willing to deviate from Trump when necessary. His foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, was reportedly central to attempts during a national security meeting to dissuade then-prime minister Starmer from granting the US permission to use UK bases. That would not significantly alter the risk of attacks, Burke added. “Iran’s targets are not necessarily chosen to directly punish a country; most experts believe they are selected to sow division in societies, distract policymakers, and divert resources.”

For now, the investigation continues.