Republicans fear their voters may stay home rather than flip to Democrats

Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County told a Wall Street Journal reporter that frustration with the cost of living and President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement is shaping their outlook ahead of the November midterm elections, with Republicans in the area expressing concern that some voters may stay home rather than switch to Democrats.

In an installment of the Journal’s “Rooted In” series, Washington-based politics reporter Sabrina Rodriguez — a Hialeah native who previously reported for the Washington Post and Politico — went back to her home county to take the political temperature. Miami-Dade, Florida’s most populous county, is roughly 70% Hispanic, with two-thirds of residents speaking Spanish at home, more than 50% immigrants, and about one-third Cuban American, according to Rodriguez’s reporting.

“In most of my conversations, I heard voters express frustration with the growing cost of living — but the prevailing complaint was with Trump’s handling of immigration,” Rodriguez wrote.

Rodriguez spoke to Miami-Dade residents, including her mother and a childhood friend, who described what they said they were seeing and hearing in their neighborhoods. Foot traffic was down in Doral, a city with a large Venezuelan population where residents said people were being detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. A friend’s father, who was from Cuba, was deported to Mexico, Rodriguez reported. She also described long lines outside the immigration court in downtown Miami and accounts of people who showed up for their hearings being deported.

Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to flip Miami-Dade County since 1988 during the 2024 election, Rodriguez noted. But while the county and Florida overall have shifted to the right in recent election cycles, Rodriguez reported that she heard residents across the political spectrum describe the November election as potentially competitive.

For Republicans in the area, Rodriguez wrote, the concern is not that their voters will switch to Democrats but that they might not vote at all.

That dynamic could affect races across the state, including Democrat Eliott Rodriguez’s challenge to GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents a Miami-area congressional district. Salazar recently released an ad breaking with Trump on immigration, according to the Journal. Salazar’s campaign did not make her available for an interview, Rodriguez reported.