Analysts attribute diesel prices to Iran war, not Kyiv’s strikes
Ukraine pressed ahead with strikes on Russian oil refineries in defiance of President Donald Trump’s appeals, hitting an oil facility in Russia’s southern Samara region overnight alongside a Russian vessel in the Black Sea and a drone launch and storage site in the Oryol region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday in a statement on social media.
Trump has urged Zelenskyy in a private phone call to halt the campaign and has repeatedly suggested in public that Ukraine’s strikes are to blame for a global squeeze on diesel supplies. “Diesel is really hurt much more, not by the Middle East, but by what’s going on in Russia, because those diesel refineries are being knocked out at a pretty alarming rate,” Trump said Wednesday.
Diesel prices in the US have risen to record highs in recent weeks, adding to cost-of-living pressures that have helped push Trump’s approval ratings to a career low before next month’s midterm elections. Energy analysts have pointed to the war in Iran and wider disruption to global oil markets as the leading drivers of the price increases.
Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian refineries have nevertheless emerged as an additional contributor to tighter diesel supplies at a politically sensitive moment for the US president. The campaign in recent months has knocked out more than 45% of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Ukrainian estimates, prompting fuel rationing in some regions and long queues at petrol stations.
Russia, traditionally the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, earlier this week extended its ban on diesel exports until the end of October, adding further pressure to a global supply crunch.
Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at Ukraine’s government-run National Institute for Strategic Studies, said it was unlikely Kyiv would stop targeting Russian oil infrastructure as long as Russia continued its daily attacks on Ukraine. “There is no rationale for Ukraine to continue exercising restraint while it is being bombarded and major urban areas are under constant attack,” Bielieskov said. “We need to deprive Russia of revenue.”
Zelenskyy has been pushing for a US-brokered energy ceasefire with Russia, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little interest in the proposal, instead vowing to intensify strikes on Ukraine. Russia has continued deadly missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, targeting energy infrastructure, commercial warehouses and other businesses in an apparent effort to cripple the country’s economy and render Kyiv increasingly uninhabitable.
A Russian drone struck a school in Kyiv on Thursday morning, but no one was injured because the children were sheltering in the basement, Klitschko said. A key bridge in the Ukrainian capital was also hit, forcing authorities to suspend metro services and other public transport.
Kyiv has experienced near round-the-clock Russian attacks in recent weeks, at times increasingly resembling a frontline city in what many see as the most challenging period for the capital since the early days of the full-scale invasion. Russia’s newer jet-powered drones have proved particularly difficult for Ukrainian air defences to intercept, with success rates significantly lower than for the slower Shahed-type drones.
The sustained attacks have revived fears of another winter with prolonged power and heating outages, after similar strikes last year left parts of Ukraine without electricity during temperatures that fell as low as -20C.