Unemployment rate rises to 4.2% ahead of midterm elections

The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp deceleration from August’s revised figure of 133,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, while employers across major sectors from technology to retail left workforces largely unchanged.

The September report, the final monthly employment update before the midterm congressional elections, showed hiring fell significantly from August. The data points to a cooling economy that analysts said reduces the likelihood of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, said job gains have followed a “rollercoaster” pattern this year, but a single soft report is unlikely to point to a lasting collapse. Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, said the lower figure was “not disastrous,” noting that a drop in government roles and changes in temporary visa policy weighed on overall growth.

The report stands in sharp contrast to President Donald Trump’s insistence that the US economy is thriving. Trump has described America as the “hottest” nation in the world, a characterization at odds with the September data. The disconnect is likely to present challenges for the president and his fellow Republicans as they campaign in the final month before the midterms.

An AP/NORC poll released on Thursday found that 26% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy overall, and 17% approve of his handling of cost-of-living issues. Both figures are new lows for the president, surpassing the lowest mark recorded for Democrat Joe Biden during his presidential term.

Trump acknowledged the gap between his views and public opinion at a White House event earlier this week. “I’ve done a very bad job of explaining how good the country is doing,” he said.

The September report lands amid a pattern of cooling economic signals. Job gains have been a “rollercoaster” this year, according to Schroders’ Brown, and the latest data suggests employers are choosing to hold steady rather than hire or fire staff. For the Federal Reserve, the cooling labor market reduces the likelihood of further interest rate increases.

With the midterm elections one month away, the September jobs data presents significant challenges for the president and his fellow Republicans on the campaign trail. The cooling labor market and the president’s optimistic economic framing set up a sharp contrast as the midterm vote approaches.