Lee trails by 3 to 5 points in internal poll for solidly Republican district
Three Latter-day Saints voters in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District told NPR they will not vote for Republican nominee Mark Lamb in the November general election, citing allegations reported by the Arizona Republic that Lamb had multiple affairs and sent sexually explicit messages to a woman outside his marriage, then threatened to send law enforcement after her if she spoke publicly about it. Lamb has denied the allegations.
Kimberly Tait, a Gilbert resident who left the Republican Party in 2016 to register as an independent, always considered herself to be conservative but experienced a political identity crisis because she could not bring herself to align with the Republican Party under President Trump.
“I’m not super progressive politically and I’m really pretty moderate,” Tait said. “But the MAGA movement in and of itself is — it’s just really gross to me.”
The seat opened because Rep. Andy Biggs is not seeking reelection as he runs for Arizona governor. Voters will choose between Lamb and Democrat Elizabeth Lee, an infertility nurse who has branded herself “Nurse Lee.” Cook Political Report rates the district Solidly Republican; an internal campaign poll shared with NPR, conducted by Change Research, found Lee trailing Lamb by 3 to 5 points.
Arizona’s 5th Congressional District covers the eastern part of the sprawling Phoenix suburbs of Maricopa County — Arizona’s most populated — as well as Pinal County. The district has exploded in population in recent years. Kim Fridkin, a political science professor at Arizona State University who has lived in the district for about a decade, said the area’s rapid growth has reshaped its politics.
“A lot of people came in from other states and a lot of them from California and they definitely wanted to move to a more conservative place,” Fridkin said.
The district is a mix of working, middle, and upper-middle-class families. It is predominantly Republican, mostly white, and fairly religious, with a sizable LDS population. Two of Arizona’s six LDS temples sit within its boundaries.
Lamb has been accused of racist remarks and sexual misconduct while he was Pinal County sheriff. The Arizona Republic has published a multipart investigation into Lamb that alleges he had multiple affairs and sent sexually explicit messages to a woman outside his marriage, then threatened to send law enforcement after her if she spoke publicly about it. The Republic also reported that church leaders looked into claims about Lamb’s sexual improprieties. Chastity — defined by the church as no sexual relations outside of marriage — is one of the values the church holds sacred, and members out of step with covenants can have privileges revoked or face excommunication. Lamb, who did not respond to NPR’s interview request, denied the allegations at an event at the Encores Conservative Club in June.
“I’ve been called a racist. I’ve been called a misogynist … I’m going to tell you folks, these are lies. Every single bit of it,” Lamb said, referring to the Republic’s reporting.
To Tait, Lamb as the nominee is the latest example of an unrecognizable Republican Party. His campaign slogan is “God, Family, Freedom,” and to her the sentiment rings hollow because “the candidate and all that they represent is the antithesis of that.”
“Yes, Mark Lamb is a member of my faith. He also belongs to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. But from what I understand about Mark Lamb, the dishonesty that has been displayed in his public and private life is completely contrary to our faith,” Tait said.
She said she objected to electing another official accused of sexual misconduct.
“The idea of having yet another elected official who is accused of sexual misconduct towards women,” Tait said, “that does not speak well to me, to my children. Like, what is that teaching our children?”
Holly Anderson, another Arizona LDS voter who has become more purple, said she would not support Lamb despite sharing his religion.
“I vote according to my personal values, and I believe that a leader should have character. I do not align with either one of the parties,” Anderson told NPR.
She said she loved the late Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. But she said the party has changed, and it would be hypocritical of her to support Lamb, even if they share the same religion. She cited a New Testament passage her faith emphasizes: “In my faith, we really stand by 2 Corinthians 13:1. It’s a very important scripture to us. It says ‘In the mouth of two or three witnesses, shall every word be established.’”
“There’s been multiple women who have come forth and exposed the things that he has done,” Anderson said.
Suzanne Lunt, another independent LDS voter in the district, also said she would not vote for Lamb in November. She grew up Republican and considered herself to be a moderate conservative. But after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, she decided to leave the party. During the 2024 presidential election, she was the co-chair of the Republicans for Biden committee. She has been called a Republican in Name Only, or a RINO, over her political stances, but she feels the party and its leaders led her astray, not the other way around.
“There are a lot of Republicans that I think are really RINOs because they’re not upholding the principles that we’ve all admired all of these years,” she said, referring to Republicans not supporting small government, protection of life and upstanding character.
“I think we need to find people, and we’re taught by our church leaders that we need to look at people who have character and who can represent us well,” Lunt added. “Lamb comes across as so untrustworthy on a lot of different levels.”
Historically, Mormons vote for Republicans. But they have become a little less red over the last two decades, according to an analysis by YouGov. In neighboring Utah, where the LDS church is the predominant religion, Trump has faced some of his greatest opposition in a red state. In a purple state like Arizona, LDS voters start to look more independent overall when factoring in a complicated relationship many have with President Trump over his crass personality and hardline stances on issues, such as immigration.
All three women said they believe Lamb will be victorious in November because of the district’s conservative lean, but they are noticing that more LDS voters are souring on partisan politics altogether.
“I think there’s definitely a turn in people’s feelings and I think that there are more that feel like me that I’m aware of. I don’t ever see anybody wearing their MAGA hats anymore and I think most people don’t want to be associated with that craziness and the extremism,” Lunt said.
Lee, the Democratic challenger, has tried to capitalize on the discontent. An infertility nurse, she has branded herself “Nurse Lee” and said her health-care background gives her experience that would help her in Washington, D.C.
“Nurses are uniquely trained to walk into a situation very quickly, assess what’s happening, what the problem is, and then pulling together the resources to solve it,” Lee told NPR.
On the campaign trail, she has outlined her priorities and qualifications while nailing Lamb for his lack of policy goals and, in her opinion, character.
“The GOP has nominated an extremely flawed candidate with the kind of alleged flaws that people nationally are fed up with, that people in this district are most certainly fed up with,” Lee said.
Fridkin said that while flipping the seat will be difficult, economic conditions could help Lee.
“People are really feeling the effects of high gas prices and housing prices are really high and the water crisis is important in Arizona. All of these things are really hitting people where they live,” Fridkin said. “That’s when these types of low interest voters might be motivated to turn out, especially if someone is knocking on the door and telling them why they should.”
Trump’s current unpopularity could play a role in the election outcome. One recent poll found that only 39% of Arizona voters approved of the president’s job performance — the lowest rating ever recorded in the swing state.
Additionally, Fridkin argues the independent vote is critical for either candidate to win. Republicans are the largest group of registered voters in the district, but about 195,000 independents are registered there — the second most in any district in Arizona — making them an influential voting bloc.
From Lee’s perspective, the needle is moving to the left. An internal poll Lee’s campaign shared with NPR shows her gaining traction in the conservative district, especially among independents. The poll, conducted by Change Research, found Lee trailing Lamb by 3 to 5 points.
“We have spent a year making tens of thousands of phone calls, knocking tens of thousands of doors and knowing … independents are not for extremist politics,” Lee said, “sets this race up for exactly what our recent polling showed. And that is that this is actually within the margin of error.”